It begs the question: where are the 10+ million illegal immigrants living who have poured over the border under Binden/Mayorkas? Especially when 5+ units housing starts dropped -51.7% since last year (YoY) in May. And the trend under Biden looks terrible!
Source: Bloomberg
That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.
This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID…
Source: Bloomberg
With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows…
- Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
- Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March’s 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)
Source: Bloomberg
And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018…
- Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
- Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K
And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems reality is starting to set in for homebuilders…
Source: Bloomberg
As housing starts plummet, jobs seem to keep growing to record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?
