Biden Shrugged: US Housing Starts Fall To COVID Lockdown Lows (Multifamily Starts Down -51.7% YoY In May)

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by confoundedinterest17

It begs the question: where are the 10+ million illegal immigrants living who have poured over the border under Binden/Mayorkas? Especially when 5+ units housing starts dropped -51.7% since last year (YoY) in May. And the trend under Biden looks terrible!

Despite ugly consumer confidence and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected a small rebound in housing starts and building permits in May (after April’s disappointing misses). They were wrong… again… as both Starts and Permits plunged MoM (-5.5% MoM and -3.8% MoM respectively)…

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Source: Bloomberg

That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.

This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows…

  • Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
  • Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March’s 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)
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Source: Bloomberg

And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018…

  • Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
  • Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K

And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems reality is starting to set in for homebuilders…

Source: Bloomberg

As housing starts plummet, jobs seem to keep growing to record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?

 

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