Recent developments have had a profound impact on the U.S. economy. President Joe Biden has issued an unprecedented order to banks, surprising many and leaving experts scrambling to understand the implications. This comes at a time when the labor market, usually seen as a strong point in the economy, is showing signs of weakness.
According to recent reports, the U.S. labor market is not as strong as some people might believe. Job openings have dropped to their lowest levels since 2021, indicating a significant slowdown. This decline is not surprising to those who have been paying attention to the signs. Various indicators, such as the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, have been suggesting weakening demand for a while.
The evidence is clear: employers are trimming hours and reducing headcounts. The number of available positions dropped to 8.06 million, a significant decline from the previous month. Even former Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s favorite data series, the JOLTS survey, couldn’t hide the truth: the labor market isn’t as strong as believed.
This downturn isn’t limited to a specific sector. Healthcare, government, and food services are all feeling the pinch. The reasons? Some speculate it could be due to higher minimum wage requirements or a broader economic slowdown. Regardless, it’s evident that consumer purchasing power is declining, leading to decreased demand and job openings.
As job openings decrease, so does inflation. The relationship between job openings and the Consumer Price Index is clear: when demand for labor drops, inflation follows suit. Yet, despite these warning signs, there’s still a belief that inflation will surge. However, the reality might be different, which could spell trouble for the broader equity market.
The situation isn’t confined to the U.S. China, which is also struggling with economic challenges. Despite efforts to stimulate its economy, China is facing deflationary pressures and a sluggish manufacturing sector. The People’s Bank of China, PBOC, warns against overheating in the government bond market, indicating deeper economic issues.