April 7 — What Matters Today (Live Updates)

by

Latest updates at the top:

Ayatollah orders all military units to stop launching missiles.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604080768

Gold isn’t buying the ceasefire. A 3% spike during a “de-escalation” window means the big money is still positioning for a systemic break.

The dominos index closest to The Pentagon just spiked

BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepted the two-week ceasefire with the US and Israel while confirming its military will coordinate safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting immediately.

Iran says the U.S. agreed to:

1—Commitment to non-aggression
2—Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3—Acceptance of uranium enrichment
4—Lifting of all primary sanctions
5—Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6—Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7—Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8—Payment of compensation to Iran
9—Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region
10—Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

 

The statement is basically controlled access, not “open shipping.”

Here’s what it actually means in plain English:

“Safe passage… via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces”
→ Ships don’t just pass freely. They need permission and instructions from Iran’s military first.
“With due consideration of technical limitations”
→ The strait is not fully safe or normal right now. There could be:mines
damaged infrastructure
ongoing military activity
limited shipping lanes
So movement is restricted, slower, and risky

 

BREAKING: Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi releases a statement responding to President Trump’s two-week ceasefire announcement.

Full statement below:

“On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.

In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:

If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.

For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2041658492423926252

Iranian hackers’ targeting of US critical infrastructure has escalated since start of war, US says

Bombing of Iran will be suspended for two weeks — If Iran opens Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: A senior Iranian official tells Jeremy Scahill that Pakistan PM Sharif’s two-week ceasefire proposal is “essentially the same as previous Trump attempts, which Iran has rejected.”

The official adds: “A balanced proposal, endorsed by all mediators, has already been conveyed to the American side. Washington now has at its disposal all the elements required to reach a decision that will bring an end to the war.”

Iran is publicly rejecting the Pakistan proposal hours after a senior Iranian official said Tehran was “positively reviewing” it. The “positively reviewing” framing was diplomatic courtesy.

 

Here’s the current situation as of late April 7, 2026:

Trump did announce a two-week suspension of strikes on Iranian infrastructure just hours before the 8pm ET deadline. He described it as a “double-sided ceasefire” conditional on Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has not begun a meaningful reopening of the Strait. Shipping trackers show only a very limited trickle of vessels (mostly 5–15 ships per day in recent days, compared to the normal ~130–140 daily). These are mostly selective passages for ships from “friendly” countries (e.g., Iraqi, Chinese, Malaysian, or Pakistani-linked vessels) that Iran has explicitly cleared. Iran is still effectively controlling access.

There is no confirmed two-week truce window that has started with broad reopening. Iran continues to reject temporary ceasefires and is demanding a permanent end to the war plus other concessions.

Israel is on a high state of alert right now.
The IDF Home Front Command has kept nationwide restrictions in place, with sirens sounding frequently and most of the population under wartime guidelines.
Iran has launched multiple waves of missiles and drones at Israel today and in recent days, including ballistic missiles and some cruise missiles.
Iran has shifted some launch activity and is trying to move or reconstitute missile capabilities, including from more central or western areas after earlier strikes degraded its options.
The markets are pricing in a ceasefire that doesn’t exist.

Australia in Energy Security Deal With China, as War Rages in Iran https://www.asiafinancial.com/australia-in-energy-security-deal-with-china-as-war-rages-in-iran

WallStreetBets retail sentiment pivots to “war is ending” bets as S&P 500 nears a 6% recovery from recent lows. Retail is buying the dip on a geopolitical prayer. They’re betting on a Trump-brokered peace deal that the IRGC hasn’t even acknowledged yet, prime conditions for a massive rug-pull.

CENTCOM confirms 13,000 targets struck in Iran since February 28, with 150 vessels destroyed in “Operation Epic Fury.

CNN reports expected US Iran deal tonight citing regional source and Pakistan mediation

BREAKING: A deal is “expected to be closed” between the US and Iran tonight, per CNN.

Details include:

1. A “regional source” has informed CNN that “some good news is expected from both sides soon”

2. Discussions are being steered directly by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir

3. The White House said that Trump has been made aware of Pakistan’s proposed ceasefire and that “a response will come”

Oil prices are falling on the news and US stock market futures are now green.

We expect to receive more details shortly.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2041627387696443525

Trump has not announced a new 5-day or two-week suspension of strikes on Iranian power plants.
-Current situation as of now: Trump’s hard deadline remains 8:00 p.m. ET tonight (April 7).
-He has repeatedly said this deadline is final and “highly unlikely” to be moved again.
-He warned that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of -Hormuz by 8pm, the US will launch massive strikes on power plants, bridges, and other infrastructure (“a whole civilization will die tonight”).
-Pakistan has asked for a two-week extension, and Iran is reviewing it, but Trump has not agreed to any new pause or extension.

Trump remains tight-lipped on the status of Iran talks, saying “I can’t tell you, we’re in heated negotiations”

The S&P 500 erases all losses and turns green on the day as Pakistan asks President Trump to extend his 8 PM deadline by 2 weeks. Both sides have said they are reviewing the proposal.

BREAKING: A major law enforcement operation led by the FBI is currently underway at multiple addresses in the east Houston neighborhood of Clinton Park.
Several agencies are assisting including FBI San Antonio SWAT, Houston Police & HPD SWAT, the U.S. Marshals Service, Texas DPS, ATF agents, and the Houston Fire Department.

https://x.com/KPRC2Bryce/status/2041570518873076220

Oil exports from Russia’s terminal in Novorossiysk suspended after UAV attack

President Trump has received Pakistan’s request to extend his bridge and power plant deadline, and a “RESPONSE WILL COME”

Hormuz crisis ‘worse than 1973, 1979 and 2002 combined’, says IEA chief

Anthropic ARR reportedly hits $30 billion following new Broadcom and Google integration, doubling its revenue in under two months.
The AI bubble is morphing into a vertical revenue wall. At this rate, the compute spend is the only thing keeping the Nasdaq from a geopolitical heart attack.

China-based private tech firms are reportedly marketing AI tools to track US military movements in the Middle East to assist Iranian strategy.
Proxy war 2.0 where the “bullets” are datasets and satellite pings. Beijing is treating the Strait of Hormuz like a beta test for the South China Sea.

US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters.
The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore.

BREAKING: Trump is ready to give Iran more time…

U.S. and Iran are both considering proposal.

Trump turns on ‘low IQ’ Tucker Carlson after podcaster told troops to DISOBEY ORDERS and seize nuclear codes

BREAKING: Pakistan PM Sharif: Request Trump to extend Iran deadline for two weeks.

$2 trillion Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen this month.

Military commanders may disobey orders to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure according to former US general Mark Hertling.

Iran told mediators its missile and drone arsenal remains far from depleted and the regime believes it is currently winning the conflict against the US and Israel.

It’s so naive for people to think Trump would wait for the deadline to expire before striking Iran.

Markets are still betting on a possible TACO moment. A lot of traders are positioned for de-escalation or a last-minute deal. Strikes on infrastructure are already happening. Israel and the US have hit:
-Multiple railway bridges and sections
-Highway interchanges
-Petrochemical plants and gas facilities (including parts of South Pars)
-Military targets on Kharg Island
-Steel plants and other industrial sites

The deadline isn’t here yet and the strikes already are.

Railways in Isfahan, Kashan, Mianeh and Zanjan. Bridges in Qom and Tabriz. And Kharg Island, the oil hub Trump has been eyeing for weeks.

They’re not waiting for 8pm. They’re dismantling Iran’s ability to move anything, anywhere.

Source: CIG TG

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2041533021397106849

IRAN’S U.N. AMBASSADOR SAYS U.N. SECRETARY-GENERAL’S PERSONAL ENVOY CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO TEHRAN TO PURSUE CONSULATIONS

IRGC Missile Command:

​”We announce the end of all targeting restrictions. We will strike infrastructure in a manner that will deprive the United States and regional countries of oil and gas resources for years to come.

​Orders have been transmitted to local missile bases, and operations will begin immediately.”
https://x.com/DailyIranNews/status/2041512456992981322

Restaurants are going broke.

Iran suspends all train services on Mashhad and Khuzestan lines following Israeli military warnings to stay away from railway infrastructure. Tehran is finally flinching. By grounded their own rail network, the regime is admitting they can’t protect their logistics spine from the precision strikes already gutting the provinces.

Israeli Air Force destroys approximately ten key rail sections and transport bridges used by the IRGC to move weapon systems. Netanyahu is effectively pre-gaming “Bridge Day.”

US oil prices surge above $117/barrel as President Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline approaches.

The United States Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, gets booed by delegates when he mentioned Trump’s “peace policy” during his speech

April ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March”

Marjorie Taylor Green is demanding for the love of God, that Republicans 25th amendment Donald Trump

Foldable iPhone broken
https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/supply-chain/foldable-iphone-hits-engineering-snags-shipment-delays-possible-sources

SPY 0DTE call activity surges as VIX puts also see heavy flow at open

Wave 99: IRGC pounds US petchem sites, vows ‘no restraint’ if Iranian infrastructure hit
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/07/766439/True-promise-4-wave-99

40,000 megalithic dolmens are spread across the Korean Peninsula, more than any other country

Egyptian, Pakistani, and Turkish mediators jointly floated a 45-day ceasefire proposal a couple days ago. It would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and time for broader talks.
Iran has already rejected temporary/ short-term ceasefires (including a previous 48-hour idea) and is demanding a permanent deal plus compensation instead.

Stay indoors advisory issued for over half a million people as lung-penetrating toxins fill the air

UNPOPULAR OPINION: TRUMP WILL OFF-RAMP TODAY

Senior Iranian source told Reuters that if the situation spirals, Iran’s allies will close the Bab el-Mandeb waterway too.
That would choke off another key chokepoint and multiply the supply shock far beyond Hormuz alone.

Iran closed all diplomatic and indirect channels with the US, suspending every message exchange after Trump’s “whole civilization will die tonight” threat.

FBI opens ‘pre-crime’ center
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/fbis-new-political-pre-crime-center?triedRedirect=true

KANYE BANNED FROM UK
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxk3kxjr0o

America’s new retirement age is 85 — or 35
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/ar-AA20ftiq

New explosions on Kharg Island — 50+ military targets destroyed.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-us-israel-war-trump-news-explosions-on-strategic-kharg-island-bridge-hit-in-central-iran-reports-11323099

Fed’s Williams stated the Iran war will drive higher inflation while the IMF chief flagged slower global growth from the conflict.

Tehran is signaling massive asymmetric retaliation that could blackout Gulf oil output and send energy markets into chaos.

Hard to believe Iran wouldn’t have a retaliation plan if we try to take or flatten Kharg

October 7th, April 7th? Today will be the biggest TACO Tuesday ever.

The macro fallout is already rippling beyond oil into broader inflation and supply chains with no quick off-ramp in sight.

Israel is preparing to bomb Iran’s railway system, and Iran removing all restraints on attacks on the Gulf.

BREAKING: The US & Iran have both rejected the peace plan proposed by mediators.

NYT | Iran offers 10 point proposal to end war — $2 million fee per ship passing thru Hormuz.

Trump: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

Iranian missile struck Ramat Hasharon in Israel’s Tel Aviv district damaging cars streets and infrastructure with sirens sounding across the country.
Tehran keeps landing hits on Israeli soil even under heavy airstrikes.

Trump wants Jessica Tarlov off the air.

Japan’s MOF is now eyeing direct intervention in crude oil futures to fight yen weakness and tame speculation. High-stakes move.

‘Every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o’clock’: Trump doubles-down on Iran deal deadline… A ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ for Tehran with millions struggling to get food and global financial Armageddon

US has already burned through over 42 billion dollars on the Iran conflict with the meter still running.
War spending at this pace eats into fiscal space fast and the bond market feels it.

Explosions reported in Tehran and nearby Karaj as fresh strikes hit the area. Iran continues launching attacks while absorbing hits, the attrition phase is speeding up fast.

Israel issues urgent warning to Iranian citizens to avoid all train travel and railway lines until 21:00 local time (intel)
Israel is telegraphing the target list. This isn’t a shadow war anymore; it’s a systematic dismantling of national infrastructure while the world watches the clock.

Bloomberg Economics outlines four possible outcomes ahead of Trump’s deadline:

🔸Ceasefire (low chance): The U.S. and Iran remain far apart on terms.
🔸Delay (medium): Trump could push back the deadline again, though he’s signaled reluctance.
🔸Air strikes (high): The most likely path—ranging from limited to broader attacks.
🔸Major escalation (low): Ground troops or targeting key sites like Kharg Island would be risky.

Bottom line: Limited military strikes are seen as the most probable next step.
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2041475481824870701

US and Iran remain locked in incompatible demands with no workable ceasefire path emerging

In this buyer’s market, one home seller took an offer $10,000 below asking price, covered $5,000 in closing costs, and paid for $12,000 in repairs
https://fortune.com/2026/04/04/housing-buyers-market-spring-selling-season-iran-war-home-prices-incentives/

China has sold US Treasuries down to holdings not seen since 2008.

Iran’s IRGC stated it will now hit US and allied Gulf infrastructure to deprive the region of oil and gas for years if power plants or bridges are struck.
Tehran dropped the restraint act entirely, this is no longer contained and the energy shock is getting priced in real time.

US and Israeli forces hit the military grid around Kharg Island, knocking out radar, air‑defense nodes and the naval positions that guard Iran’s main export artery. The oil terminal itself stayed untouched, but the strike stripped away enough of its protection that traders finally snapped to attention, 90 percent of Iran’s export lifeline suddenly looks a lot more exposed than it did yesterday.