U.K. announces they are CHANGING the way excess deaths are calculated
‘Release date:
20 February 2024
1. Main changes
Trends in population size, ageing and mortality rates are accounted for by the new method for estimating the expected number of deaths used in the calculation of excess mortality (the difference between the actual and expected number of deaths); this is not the case for the current method, which uses a simple five-year average to estimate the number of expected deaths.
Individual weeks and months that were substantially affected by the immediate mortality impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic are removed from the data when estimating expected deaths in subsequent periods, whereas the current approach involves removing data for the whole of 2020.
Use of a statistical model means that multiple demographic, trend, seasonal and calendar effects can be included simultaneously in the estimation of expected deaths, and confidence intervals can readily be obtained.
A “bottom-up” approach to aggregation means that estimates of excess deaths are additive across age groups, sexes, and high-level geographies, and between months and years.
Having a common methodology for all four UK countries means that estimates of excess deaths are consistent and comparable across all parts of the UK, and the new methodology is largely coherent (though not identical) to that used by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities to estimate excess deaths in English local authorities.‘
h/t A Deplorable Neanderthal