What’s happening now is a troubling shift in the job market. Job openings are being filled as new entrants join the labor force and displaced workers find new positions. However, these job openings are not being replenished, leading to an uptick in the unemployment rate. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find work, and unless the job openings rate stabilizes, a recession will be hard to avoid.
The situation is dire. The labor market’s inability to sustain job openings signals deep-seated issues. As job openings dry up, the pathway to employment becomes narrower, increasing unemployment and straining the economy. This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about real people struggling to find work in an increasingly unforgiving job market.
The impact is significant. A weakening labor market affects consumer confidence and spending, which are crucial for economic growth. As more individuals face prolonged unemployment, the ripple effects will be felt across various sectors, exacerbating economic instability. The challenges ahead are formidable, requiring strategic interventions to bolster job creation and stabilize the market. If the trend continues, the risk of slipping into a recession grows, threatening the broader economic landscape.
The last time full-time employment declined for four consecutive months or experienced over 3 million job losses was during previous recessions.
To clarify, I don't believe we are currently in a recession.
However, if the Fed is looking for signs of weakness in the labor… pic.twitter.com/WcZq6a9dIs
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 7, 2024
Standing back, what’s happening now is that job openings are being converted into jobs as new entrants join the labor market and those who lost
their old job find a new one.The problem is that these job openings are not being replenished. This is why the unemployment rate is… pic.twitter.com/IRtxtlW4WI
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) June 7, 2024
"Full-time employment down"
"Part-time employment up"
"Job market is hot!"
"Births/Deaths model propping up jobs"Our focus:
Recent college graduates can't find jobs.May UE y/y spread for 20-24 ages is highest observed except for '08-09 and '20. pic.twitter.com/PCjJVvC0iB
— Neely (@NeelyTamminga) June 7, 2024
Default rate leads the unemployment rate by about 1.5 years
This was seen in 1990 and 2008
The only exception was 1994
When monetary policy was not restrictive pic.twitter.com/26NAYWTxDq
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) June 7, 2024
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