LOS ANGELES — It appears, at first glance, that Democrats couldn’t have scripted it any better — their pathway to reclaiming the House runs straight through deep blue California, which is poised to back President Joe Biden by double digits.
Their Hollywood ending is far from certain.
The six fiercely competitive California districts key to flipping the chamber are a microcosm of the most pressing questions facing the party across the country — including whether their increasingly-wobbly coalition of Latino, Asian American, Black and young voters show up for them in November.
“It has been the rule of thumb that those constituencies help Democratic candidates more than Republican candidates,” said David Binder, a Democratic pollster. He expects that will still be the case in the fall — but the extent of that help is unclear.
“To what degree do we rely on that history,” he asked, “or are we in a different situation?”
On paper, the fundamentals of the most competitive districts favor Democrats. The party has a registration advantage in all six seats. Their populations are diverse, with white voters making up a majority in just one district. In 2020, Biden triumphed over former President Donald Trump in five of the districts.
But Biden’s success in the state four years ago belied deeper warning signs for his party. Democrats lost three House seats that cycle, all in districts where voters also backed Biden. Turnout that year hit a 48-year high — but the benefit to the party did not trickle down-ballot.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/16/house-control-could-hinge-california-democrats-00150229