via Mike Shedlock
Let’s investigate US treasury debt issuance by month and year.
Chart Notes
- Bills: Treasury bills are short term debt ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks. Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its face value.
- Notes: Treasury Notes have terms of 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years. Notes pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.
- Bonds: Treasury Bonds have a term of either 20 or 30 years. Bonds pay a fixed rate of interest every six months until they mature.
- TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are designed to protect against inflation. Unlike other Treasury securities, where the principal is fixed, the principal of a TIPS can go up or down over its term.
- FRN: Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) are relatively short-term investments that mature in two years, pay interest four times each year, have an interest rate that may change or “float” over time.
The above descriptions from Treasury Direct.
Cumulative Issuance
- From 2013-2019 the total amount of treasuries outstanding rose from $11.854 trillion to $16.663 trillion. That’s an increase of $4.809 trillion in six years.
- From 2019-2023 the total amount of treasuries outstanding rose from $16.673 trillion to $26.366 trillion. That’s an increase of $9.693 trillion in four years.
Net Treasury Issuance Change From Year Ago
The years of under $1 trillion issuance have come and gone. One might have thought the pandemic surge was over, but thanks to Biden’s inflation reduction act another surge is underway.
Net Treasury Issuance Change From Month Ago
Over the last 12 months treasury issuance is at an average pace of $211 billion a month, a total of $2.536 trillion.
Most of the issuance is short-term Treasury Bills which will keep getting rolled over because we certainly are not paying down any debt.
There’s also steady steam of Treasury Bond issuance between $30 and $45 billion a month.
Pending in Congress
President Biden along with warmongers in both parties want to spend another $100 billion on Ukraine and Israel with no strings attached.
The Wall Street Journal constantly moans about deficit spending except for every warmongering project it sees.
I wrote about these Op-Eds this morning in Hoot of the Day: WSJ Complains of Biden’s Inability to Use the Bully Pulpit
Child Tax Credit Expansion
Amazingly, House Republicans got suckered into child tax care credit expansion.
On January 17, I asked How Much Will That GOP Deal on Child Tax Credits Really Cost?
The unfortunate answer is $1.5 trillion over ten years.
Transfer Receipts
What Are Transfer Receipts?
Transfer receipts are government payments for which no services were performed.
With every recession, transfer receipts as a percentage of real personal income rises.
For discussion, please see How Much Do Food Stamps, Social Security, and Medicare Support the Economy?
Some objected to my comment “Transfer receipts are government payments for which no services were performed.” Sorry, but that’s the definition.
Regardless of how anyone feels, Social Security and Medicare are about to explode.
Employment in Age Groups 60+ Will Drop by ~12.5 Million
Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.
For discussion, please see In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
12.5 million boomers will stop working and start collecting Social Security and Medicare.
US Treasury issuance is poised to soar. The Fed thinks inflation will be under control. I think otherwise.