Meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing weather system that shows significant potential for a widespread and robust severe weather outbreak across the Southern Plains and the Midwestern United States. According to the latest data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), a surface low is expected to develop in Kansas around February 27, reaching a minimum pressure of 986mb. Subsequently, the system is forecasted to intensify further as it moves northeast, reaching Ontario with a minimum pressure of 972mb by early February 29.
While the forecast is approximately 10 days out, there is a growing consensus and confidence in the severe weather potential. Both the GFS Deterministic and Ensemble outputs are exhibiting consistency, suggesting a classic setup for intense storms across the Midwest and South. It’s crucial to note that while the signals are strong, the forecast remains subject to change, and meteorologists will continue to closely monitor and provide updates as the situation evolves.
The forecasted scenario involves a ski jump trough ejection, where a powerful system drops south from the Pacific Northwest, launching a secondary trough. This complex weather pattern, if it unfolds as predicted, could lead to a significant severe weather event. As the system develops, meteorologists will track its progression and assess the potential impacts on the affected regions.
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Outrageously long-range outlook that I made a few hours ago. Note that this solely based off of the GFS/GEFS outputs, not the Euro. (also ‘hazards’ not ‘modes’) pic.twitter.com/Xf0uYzEpNI
— Meteoroloquads (@meteoroloquads) February 19, 2024
Confidence has only increased in severe weather potential next week.
While we're still about 10 days out, more agreement & consistency are coming together from both the GFS Deterministic & Ensemble outputs.
This is a pretty classic look for very robust severe weather across the… pic.twitter.com/Qw9oHJ5A1a
— Weather Track US (@weathertrackus) February 19, 2024
Confidence is beginning to really increase regarding the risk for widespread, potentially robust severe weather across the Southern Plains into the Midwestern US next week.
Things will change with time, but a very impressive signal for being this far out.#weather #wxtwitter pic.twitter.com/X6mJATg3H8
— WX_Fitz (@NYFitz_WX) February 19, 2024
The 06z GFS came in with an absolute unit of a ski jump trough ejection Feb 27-28. The tandem trough ejection is key wit GFS rendition, as a powerful kicker system drops south from the Pacific NW and launches a secondary trough. A complex scenario like this is subject to change! pic.twitter.com/rV2EjgrROP
— Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) February 19, 2024
h/t DOORBERT