The Fed’s potential halt in tightening doesn’t guarantee a stock market boom, as historical patterns show a mixed outcome influenced by factors like recession and market pricing.

The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and the extent to which it has already been factored into market pricing.

If the Fed is done tightening, does that mean the stock market should be booming soon? Well, history offers no certainty. Here I show what happened to the S&P 500 after the Fed peaked in the past. As you can see, it’s a mixed picture, with the market falling about as often as it… pic.twitter.com/mnoCZ0OVQo

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) November 30, 2023

When the govt says it's gonna be a soft landing for the economy.

🔊 pic.twitter.com/Ec5ZmO9oHi

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) December 1, 2023

🇺🇸 Dear markets, I hate to break it to you but… pic.twitter.com/wJOhdhNlT4

— Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) November 30, 2023