Growing concerns point to potential panic before the year’s end

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Hoisington Investment Management’s Dr. Lacy Hunt Calls for Hard Landing

Despite enduring the worst year for long-dated Treasuries in U.S. history, Dr. Lacy Hunt, a prominent ‘deflationist’ and treasury bull, remains steadfast in his bullish stance on these bonds. He believes that the Federal Reserve’s current tight monetary policy will lead to a severe economic downturn, causing long-term rates to plummet. While Hunt’s unwavering conviction is noteworthy, especially after a challenging 18 months for his fund, there’s growing speculation about whether this anticipated ‘hard landing’ might keep getting pushed further into the future.

The Fed Is Terrified Americans Are Losing Faith That Inflation Will Return to Normal

The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging situation as public confidence in the return to normal inflation wanes. Inflation expectations have hit their highest level since 2011, complicating the Fed’s task. If these expectations continue to rise, the Fed may be compelled to further tighten monetary policy, potentially leading to higher interest rates for a prolonged period. This situation could create a deflationary scenario, where persistent high inflation erodes public trust and forces the Fed into more aggressive action, risking a slowdown in economic activity and potential deflationary pressures.

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Bank Credit Growth Negative For 15th Straight Week, Savings Growth Negative For Last Two Quarters

Amid economic challenges, Biden’s campaign communications director, Michael Tyler, controversially stated the need for “another four years to finish the job,” raising concerns about what that implies. The US faces troubling signs like consecutive weeks of negative bank credit growth and declining net savings as a percentage of gross national income. Additionally, September saw the most significant consumer credit drop since May 2020, hinting at a looming recession.


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