🇺🇸 US Chicago PMI 41.6
In #recession territory!
Chart: @Vetta_Fi pic.twitter.com/630u9tQzP8
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 6, 2024
"please don't sell!" https://t.co/tPwSVzkbAQ
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) November 6, 2024
- 30-Year Treasury Yield: The yield on 30-year Treasury notes surged to 4.6%, the highest in over four months, signaling growing concerns over future economic conditions.
- US Debt & Valuations: U.S. debt has skyrocketed to $34 trillion, while market valuations remain dangerously high, with the Buffett Indicator showing the stock market is 209% overvalued.
- Unemployment & Yield Curve: Unemployment rose to 4.1% in October 2024, while the yield curve begins to un-invert, a classic recession signal.
- Investor Sentiment & Housing: With household equity allocations at historic highs and “dumb money” confidence soaring, many worry about an impending market correction. The housing market shows signs of sluggishness, with Zillow reporting only a 2.7% increase in home values over the past year.
- NYC Hotel Vacancies & PMI: NYC hotel vacancies are set to skyrocket by 400%, and the Chicago PMI fell to 41.6 in October, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Jokes aside, the challenges that this new administration will face are substantial.
In terms of markets (macro/fundamentals):
☑ US debt keeps soaring
☑ Valuations are highly stretched
☑ Unemployment is up
☑ Y/C is beginning to un-invert after a prolonged period of… pic.twitter.com/C0n2b1AsYl— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) November 6, 2024
*Warren Buffett indicator
Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you the most overvalued market in history.
God help us all pic.twitter.com/RIoqAXbB4c
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 6, 2024
Sources:
- Morningstar – Chicago PMI
- Morningstar – 30-Year Treasury Yield
- The Balance – US Debt
- Current Market Valuation – Buffett Indicator
- FRED – Unemployment Rate
- Investing – Yield Curve
- FRED – Household Equity
- Indeed – NYC Hotel Jobs
- Zillow – US Housing Market
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