JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 5, 2023
The housing market is stuck, per BI: Americans can't afford homes, investors aren't buying property, and economists see little relief ahead.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 6, 2023
When you're finally getting inflation under control and OPEC prolonged it's production cuts sending oil prices above $90 pic.twitter.com/sQnAnRAQVz
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) September 5, 2023
1/5
Since spring, the Saudis and Russians have been working together …
*SAUDI TO EXTEND VOLUNTARY CUT OF 1M B/D UNTIL END OF DEC. 2023
*RUSSIA TO EXTEND 300K B/D OIL EXPORT CUTS THROUGH DECEMBER
*BRENT CRUDE OIL HITS $91 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER pic.twitter.com/ZCgndY6Xtj
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) September 5, 2023
Oil To Hit $107 As Deficit Approaches 3 Million Barrels Per Day t.co/7l8jBsoCbd
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 5, 2023
BREAKING: 34 out of the top 50 private real estate developers in China are suffering delinquencies.
According to Bloomberg, the remaining 16 developers face a combined $1.5 billion of bond payments this month.
In January 2024, these remaining 16 Chinese developers will face a… pic.twitter.com/lyJmLYPmeI
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 5, 2023
Small-caps are down nearly 2%.
I can not stress this enough.
We are at an extremely important juncture and risk is severely elevated this September.
A credit event is coming.
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) September 5, 2023
Everyone is betting on a "Soft Landing"
This won’t end well pic.twitter.com/3Zwmx5Vzat
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) September 5, 2023
China economy imploding
Europe economy imploding: German factory orders biggest drop since covid.Meanwhile, the US has decoupled from the rest of the world. thanks to the Biden dept of goalseeked data pic.twitter.com/V5QetAeQsh
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 6, 2023
LVMH has suggested luxury spending is suddenly slowing in the U.S, per CNBC.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 6, 2023
“Banks’ exposure is even bigger than commonly reported. The banks are in danger of setting off a doom-loop scenario where losses on the loans trigger banks to cut lending, which leads to further drops in property prices and yet more losses.”
cc @TheBondFreak t.co/Iqo95J9qwW
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) September 6, 2023
Rubino: 2024 might be 2008-level ugly
St Louis Fed Nowcast Q3 GDP Growth At -0.07% As M2 Money Growth Collapses
Bidenomics appears to be heading into a dark phase. The real-time GDP tracker from the St. Louis Fed, Nowcast, is projecting a -0.07% GDP for Q3, coinciding with a sharp decline in M2 money growth. However, if you’re looking for optimism, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate, led by housing economist Raphael Bostic, paints a brighter picture with a Q3 GDP projection of 5.6%. The question on many minds is when the Federal Reserve will return to its days of low-interest rates.
Home Purchase Applications in the US Hit Lowest Point Since 1995
US home-purchase mortgage applications hit a 28-year low due to high mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate, at 7.21%, is near historic highs. Overall mortgage demand also fell to a nearly 27-year low, pushing housing affordability to its worst point in decades. High rates make homeownership less affordable, and low-rate holders are reluctant to sell, limiting supply and driving up prices. Until borrowing costs drop, the issue may persist, despite new construction. The Fed doesn’t seem to lower rates soon, aiming to curb inflation.