The U.S. economy teeters on the edge of a recession, as multiple indicators point to increasing financial instability.

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  • 30-Year Treasury Yield: The yield on 30-year Treasury notes surged to 4.6%, the highest in over four months, signaling growing concerns over future economic conditions.
  • US Debt & Valuations: U.S. debt has skyrocketed to $34 trillion, while market valuations remain dangerously high, with the Buffett Indicator showing the stock market is 209% overvalued.
  • Unemployment & Yield Curve: Unemployment rose to 4.1% in October 2024, while the yield curve begins to un-invert, a classic recession signal.
  • Investor Sentiment & Housing: With household equity allocations at historic highs and “dumb money” confidence soaring, many worry about an impending market correction. The housing market shows signs of sluggishness, with Zillow reporting only a 2.7% increase in home values over the past year.
  • NYC Hotel Vacancies & PMI: NYC hotel vacancies are set to skyrocket by 400%, and the Chicago PMI fell to 41.6 in October, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
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