Models have been honing in on this for some time.
Stay tuned for updates
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Cat 1, maybe Cat 2
Could change
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024090706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_20.png
We now have Invest #91L in the Bay of Campeche. NHC says there’s a 60% chance of development. It appears #91L will likely become our next TD or TS #Francine and head towards the Gulf coast WED/THU. We will have more throughout the weekend. Stay tuned. Interests in TX and Louisiana should monitor
We now have Invest #91L in the Bay of Campeche. NHC says there’s a 60% chance of development. It appears #91L will likely become our next TD or TS #Francine and head towards the Gulf coast WED/THU. We will have more throughout the weekend. Stay tuned. Interests in TX and… pic.twitter.com/9sbCOdSdL6
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) September 7, 2024
You can look at all the models here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
h/t DOORBERT