Something feels wrong in the markets again. Everyone keeps saying it is different this time, that the AI boom is real and the money will never stop. But the charts and the numbers tell a story that looks too familiar. It is the same pattern that always comes before the crash.
“The S&P 500 now trades at 40x free cash flow.
That’s only 25% below the March 2000 high of 50x free cash flow.
It’s also nearly double the average valuation of 22x during this bull market.
But please keep telling me how ‘valuations are reasonable’ and this is ‘nothing like the Dot Com bubble.’”
https://x.com/Ross__Hendricks/status/1984692773078069634
Forty times free cash flow. That is where we are. Just 25% below the level that marked the last great market collapse. Everyone says valuations are fine, but the math says otherwise. This is not growth anymore. It is denial.
“China already has a replacement for Nvidia’s AI chips and is not interested in them anymore – Reuters.
Back in 2022, the US banned Nvidia from selling its powerful AI chips to China.
So Nvidia made a light version called the H20, which was weak, pricey, but China bought tons of them anyway.
In 2025, Trump banned these chips too.
Meanwhile Huawei and SMIC developed Chinese-made chips that run AI just as well as Nvidia’s.
After this China banned Nvidia.
Trump tried to put these chips on the negotiation table, but Xi was not interested anymore.”
https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1984380268887646267
That turn may be the most important story nobody on Wall Street wants to talk about. China does not need Nvidia anymore. It has Huawei and SMIC building chips that do the same job. The United States tried to weaponize technology, and China built its own. Now one of America’s biggest growth engines has lost its largest customer.
“I think:
$PLTR is not buy-worthy
$IONQ is not buy-worthy
$OKLO is not buy-worthy
$RGTI is not buy-worthy
$OPEN is not buy-worthy
$BYND is not buy-worthy
$TSLA is not buy-worthy
$HOOD is not buy-worthy
All of these stocks share one thing in common:
Their valuations are extreme, and their risk–reward profiles are heavily skewed.
While I do think some of them could perform well long-term, they’re currently priced for perfection.”
https://x.com/meeijer/status/1984602837905473661
Every bubble builds its own list of untouchables. Stocks that can do no wrong, even when the numbers already have. This list could have been written in 1999 right before the crash. The names are new, the thinking is the same.
Amazon plans $125 billion in capital spending for AWS, AI chips, and logistics, up from $118 billion in 2024.
Google will spend between $91 and $93 billion on cloud infrastructure, AI data centers, and TPUs, higher than the $75 to $85 billion range it had before.
Microsoft expects roughly $94 billion in capital spending for fiscal 2026, a 45% jump from $64.55 billion last year, much of it tied to Azure and OpenAI.
Meta will pour between $70 and $72 billion into AI GPUs, LLM training, and Reality Labs infrastructure.
Tech’s internet giants have made it through earnings season, and they offered a consistent message to Wall Street: Artificial intelligence investments are only getting bigger. Alphabet, Meta , Microsoft and Amazon
each lifted their guidance for capital expenditures and now collective expect that number to reach more than $380 billion this year. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/tech-ai-google-meta-amazon-microsoft-spend.html
How long can that last when valuations are stretched, buyers are disappearing, and the cost of money keeps rising?
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1984677142253252791
It cannot. When the money stops, everything built on it stops too.