As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst mounting concerns, analysts scrutinize these signals for insights into the depth and duration of the impending economic downturn.
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Sahm Rule Recession requirement is single 0.5% rise in unemployment 3-month average
Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator is 0.3, so we've been in recession since October 23@DiMartinoBooth pic.twitter.com/8yxdB1Moj4
— 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗖ⓐ𝗟𝗟 (@MarginCallTrade) April 25, 2024
"Early US business sureys suggest slightly negative signals for manufacturing employment and mixed-to-negative signals for services employment in April."
– GS Kodnani pic.twitter.com/RARjWq6Jim
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) April 25, 2024