Contin Jobless Claims in the US rose to 1,716mil in the week ending August 5, 2023, up from 1,684mil in the previous week. pic.twitter.com/hHx7po1nYG
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 17, 2023
BTIG warns S&P 500 may drop to 4200 over coming weeks By Investing.com
” Michael Burry’s firm, Scion Asset Management, has put $1.6 billion (A$2.5 billion) on a Wall Street crash by the end of this year.
Scion has purchased a whopping $866 million in put options against a fund tracking the S&P 500 and $739 million in put options against a Nasdaq 100 fund.”
The S&P 500 relative to M2 money supply
New York Fed Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator U.S. recession probability showing highest level since 1980’s for May ’24. “The yield curve has predicted essentially every U.S. recession since 1950 with only one “false” signal, which preceded the credit crunch and slowdown in production in 1967.”
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/interactive
| Month | Probability of Recession |
|---|---|
| August 2023 | 26.15% |
| September 2023 | 23.07% |
| October 2023 | 26.03% |
| November 2023 | 38.06% |
| December 2023 | 47.31% |
| January 2024 | 57.14% |
| February 2024 | 54.49% |
| March 2024 | 57.7% |
| April 2024 | 68.22% |
| May 2024 | 70.85% |
| June 2024 | 67.31% |
| July 2024 | 66.01% |
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/faq
TLDRS:
- New York Fed Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator U.S. recession probability showing highest level since 1980’s for May ’24.
- This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
- “The yield curve has predicted essentially every U.S. recession since 1950 with only one “false” signal, which preceded the credit crunch and slowdown in production in 1967.”
h/t Dismal-Jellyfish