The One Big Beautiful Bill just passed the Senate. It’s 1,012 pages long and adds $5 trillion to the debt ceiling. That’s the largest single increase in US history. The Treasury’s own numbers show federal spending has jumped 51.7% since 2019. Revenue is up 42%. The gap is widening. The deficit for FY2024 came in at $1.83 trillion. That’s an 85.9% increase from 2019. The bill doesn’t close that gap. It widens it.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the BBB Act will add $5.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade if temporary provisions are extended. That includes $3.87 trillion from extending Trump-era tax cuts, $663 billion in new tax breaks, and $270 billion in revived business provisions. The offsets total just over $1 trillion. The math doesn’t pencil.
The bill repeals EV tax credits. It phases out clean energy subsidies. It expands cost-plus Pentagon contracts. It revives bonus depreciation and R&E expensing. It adds a new deduction for whaling captains. That’s not satire. It’s in the text. The Armed Services section alone adds $144 billion in new spending. If made permanent, that number jumps to $410 billion.
*BESSENT: THIS IS THE START OF ADDRESSING DEBT
If the start is adding $5 trillion to it, can't wait for the end
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 30, 2025
Per the @FT and further to my earlier posts:
“The dollar index, which measures the currency’s strength against a basket of six others including the pound, euro and yen, has slumped more than 10 per cent so far in 2025, the worst start to the year since the end of the gold-backed… pic.twitter.com/wwZqaNpjR3— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) June 30, 2025
Issuing nonstop short duration just like Yellen and embracing ‘Fiscal Dominance’ manipulation is a “start”? Really? 🤦🏻♂️ https://t.co/lHdaG7bNvE
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 30, 2025
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called this “the start of addressing debt.” The start added $5 trillion. The dollar index has dropped more than 10% in 2025. That’s the worst first-half performance since 1973, when the Bretton Woods system collapsed. The index is hovering near 97. It peaked at 110 last year. The bond market is still absorbing supply, but the cracks are showing. Foreign demand for Treasurys is thinning. Gold is up 17% year to date. The 10-year yield is holding near 4.3%, but pressure is building.
DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, says it has identified $160 billion in waste. That’s a rounding error next to the $6.7 trillion in total federal spending for FY2024. The biggest increases came from HHS, Treasury, and Social Security. Defense spending rose from $654 billion in 2019 to $826 billion in 2024. The Small Business Administration went from $0.5 billion to $33.2 billion. That’s not a typo.
Real reform doesn’t start with a 13-digit check. It starts with audits. Spending caps. Sunset clauses. And a hard stop on cost-plus contracts. The BBB Act does none of that. It accelerates the bleed. The dollar is flashing red. The debt is climbing. And the clock is ticking.
Sources:
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/breaking-down-one-big-beautiful-bill