The warning signs aren’t just flashing—they’re screaming. Stock market valuations are sky-high, wealth inequality is at historic extremes, and the dollar is so strong it’s breaking global trade. Sound familiar? It should. The last time we saw a setup like this, the world’s entire monetary system got a reset. They called it the Nixon shock in ‘71—what will they call it this time?
The debt picture alone is enough to send shivers down any economist’s spine. In the Roaring Twenties, U.S. debt-to-GDP was a manageable 20%. By the 1930s, after the crash, it had crept up to 30%. Today? Over 120% and climbing. That’s not just an economic red flag—it’s a crisis waiting for a trigger. Yet markets, in their infinite wisdom, continue to price in no real credit risk. When the majority is caught off guard, that’s when the biggest shocks hit.
Look at what’s happening right now:
- The S&P 500 is tanking like a global trade war just erupted.
- Oil prices are collapsing like a recession is already underway.
- Gold is surging as if inflation is about to run wild.
- Bond prices are rising as if inflation is disappearing.
- Crypto is falling like risk appetite has evaporated.
- Tech stocks are sinking like DeepSeek just got resurrected.
If you needed proof that markets are disoriented, this is it. Investors can’t agree on what’s happening, which means one side is about to get annihilated. The only thing certain is uncertainty itself.
The Volatility Index ($VIX) just surged past 20 for the sixth straight day, jumping nearly 20% in a single session. The new normal? Pure chaos.
And now, the Atlanta Fed is revising its GDP projections so fast it looks like a countdown to disaster.
- Four weeks ago: +3.9% growth.
- Two weeks ago: +2.3%.
- Last week: -1.5%.
- Today? A stunning -2.8%.
What does this mean? Recession isn’t coming—it’s already here. Maybe those mocking Warren Buffett for stockpiling cash should reconsider.
Sources:
https://x.com/infraa_/status/1896906482534232378
https://x.com/i3_invest/status/1896666899888349330