As financial alarm bells ring louder, the spotlight is on New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), which has witnessed a drastic surge in its one-year default probability, reaching a concerning 1.6%. This ominous signal, coupled with Moody’s recent downgrade of NYCB to junk status, adds to the growing apprehensions about the stability of financial institutions.
A particularly vulnerable sector is Commercial Real Estate (CRE), where delinquency rates on office buildings have surged to a worrisome 6.3%. Analysts are now scrutinizing the health of various banks, identifying 10 that could be at significant risk should the Commercial Real Estate market implode. These banks include $VLY, $COLB, $OZK, $SFNC, $WAFD, $AX, $INDB, $MBIN, $SFBS, and $DCOM.
The vulnerabilities extend beyond the immediate impact of a potential CRE crisis. Banks face a confluence of challenges, including unfavorable interest rate spreads – a result of long-term loans funded with short-term debt or deposits, worsened by the current inverted yield curve. Moreover, mortgage originations revenue remains low, and delinquencies and bankruptcies are on the rise against the backdrop of a slowing economy.
Historically, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have exhibited resilience post-Federal Reserve actions. However, the question arises whether this time will be different. As interest rate spreads falter, the delicate balance in the financial ecosystem faces additional strains.
The cautionary tale unfolding in the financial sector serves as a stark reminder of the intricate web connecting various economic elements. The potential ripple effects of defaults and downgrades are significant, urging a closer examination of the intricate factors at play and reinforcing the need for prudent economic management.
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Bear porn
NYCB 1 year default probability 1.6% pic.twitter.com/QlhNgUTumr
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) March 2, 2024
Given the leverage and interest rates sensitivity REITs perform well after the Fed is done. Will it be different this time?
Given the structural WFH change I would still not touch office REITs though.
Via @AyeshaTariq pic.twitter.com/HXra8UZ0bc
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) March 2, 2024
BREAKING 🚨: New York Community Bank
Moody's has downgraded $NYCB to junk pic.twitter.com/auXpuQZRgT
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 2, 2024
Delinquency Rates on Office Buildings pic.twitter.com/syJd450qJq
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) February 29, 2024
10 Banks at-risk if the Commercial Real Estate Market implodes according to Barrons and Bloomberg – $VLY $COLB $OZK $SFNC $WAFD $AX $INDB $MBIN $SFBS $DCOM pic.twitter.com/JdPEq4lvfI
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 2, 2024