Verified crossings still at historic lows
As of 17 June, Kpler observed six verified crossings across the monitored zone. Traffic was weighted east to west, and most vessels followed established Iranian coastal passage routes. One sanctioned vessel, Ostria, was identified… pic.twitter.com/SBo6tF7sFP
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 18, 2026
Recent US-Iran developments include a preliminary agreement/MoU aimed at:
- Extending the ceasefire.
- Removing the US naval blockade (within ~30 days).
- Allowing toll-free, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels for 60 days.
- Further negotiations on nuclear issues and regional stability (including Lebanon).
Despite the political progress and the start of some vessel movements, commercial shipping is recovering very slowly. Reasons include:
- Lingering mines and security risks (clearance is ongoing and could take months).
- Very high war-risk insurance premiums (still 10–30x pre-war levels).
- Backlog of stranded vessels.
- General caution from shipowners and insurers.