‘Stocks are at the highs, vol is at the lows. I’m on the record short small caps. I’m not going anywhere. I think hedging makes sense here.’

Trigger Warning: Chart of the Day: Citi Surprise Index vs SFR9

My hypothesis is that the US economy has begun to slow due to the long and variable lags of monetary policy finally starting to offset the positive benefits that have come from higher government deficits putting… pic.twitter.com/KP9FXPKLqH

— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) May 16, 2024

I dont believe Powell can start a rate cutting cycle without unanimous consent and right now, there are simply too many hawks.

So in order to start cutting, we are going to see either much weaker labor markets or much weaker asset prices.

— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) May 16, 2024

Indulge me for a moment – what if:

– Fed policy was too slow/loose to reliably stomp out broad based inflation, which has now become entrenched and remains durably above target

– rates higher-for-longer has acutely impacted specific industries such as small biz and CRE who are…

— Atlas Investments (@atlas_invst) May 16, 2024