US and Iran inch toward compromise in Geneva, but key demands rejected and military drills raise fears of escalation. Iran says it temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz

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Factcheck: Based on recent reports from NYT, Al Jazeera, PBS, and others as of Feb 18, 2026, negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing in Geneva, with a second round on Feb 17 showing some progress but no agreements. Iran’s leader rejected key US demands, and tensions remain high with military drills and deployments. However, talks aren’t “dead,” and there’s no confirmation of imminent war or strikes on all Iranian sites.

Oil jumps 3% after Vance says Iran ignored key U.S. demand, military strikes on the table

Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday, after Vice President JD Vance said Iran did not address U.S. red lines in nuclear talks this week and President Donald Trump reserves the right to use military force.

U.S. crude
oil rose $1.99, or 3.19%, to $64.32 per barrel by 10:09 a.m. ET. Global benchmark Brent
was up $2.04, or 3.03%, to $69.46 per barrel.

U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the discussions as “constructive,” according to Iranian media. Araghchi said the talks yielded a general agreement on guiding principles.

Oil prices closed lower Tuesday as traders interpreted the foreign minister’s comments as a sign that the U.S. and Iran could still reach a settlement.

But Vance said Tehran had failed to address core U.S. demands.

Oil Surges On Report Warning US-Iran War Is Far Closer Than Americans Realize

Axios’ Barak Ravid, a journalist very close to the Israeli government, writes Wednesday that the Trump White House is now “closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon.”

The sources he spoke to, which could be American or Israeli, say that such an operation would be a “massive” campaign at least weeks in sustained length. If it the campaign goes the way of Iraq or Afghanistan, or Syria, the conflict could eventually be measured in years and not just months.

Further, “The sources noted it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that’s much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”