The immigration pendulum has swung. For the first time in half a century, the United States is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains. That is not speculation. That is the projection from economists at Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute, flagged in a Washington Post report and confirmed by new federal data. The shift is not subtle. It is the result of deliberate enforcement.
Illegal border crossings have dropped by more than 60% since January. The Remain in Mexico policy is back in force. Asylum claims are being screened before entry. The days of catch-and-release are over. ICE is conducting workplace raids again. In Omaha, agents just carried out the largest enforcement operation in Nebraska history. The agency is now averaging 3,000 arrests per day. That is not a memo. That is a mandate.
The foreign-born workforce has shrunk by over 1 million since March. That is not a rounding error. That is a reversal. Visa overstays are being tracked. Student visa fraud is under review. Temporary protected status is being narrowed. The magnet effect is fading. The message is clear. If you enter illegally, you will be detained. If you overstay, you will be removed.
The left calls it a labor shortage. They say the economy needs more workers. But there are 8.5 million working-age Americans still on the sidelines. That is the number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Real wages are rising. Employers are offering training again. The market is adjusting. The country is not running out of labor. It is rediscovering its own.
The numbers tell the story. Net immigration surged under Biden, peaking at 3.3 million in 2023. That was the highest level since 1890. Now, the inflow is collapsing. The outflow is rising. The Brookings-AEI paper says 2025 will likely end with negative net migration. That has not happened since the Vietnam War era. The media calls it a warning. The administration calls it a win.
Sources:
https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/immigration/border-coverage/us-may-lose-immigrants-2025/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/u-could-lose-more-immigrants-224014679.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14821115/donald-trump-losing-migrants-gains.html