Trump’s message said it all. We are already at the best. He is not forecasting new highs. He is asking markets to settle. That is not bullish. That is a top.

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Trump said the stock market is at an all time high and they will maintain it. That might sound confident, but it landed flat. It was not a promise of growth. It was a warning disguised as reassurance. The S&P 500 closed at 6214. That is a record. But it feels like a ceiling, not a floor.

Right now, 42% of S&P 500 stocks are already down more than 20% from their highs. That is not healthy. The index is floating on a handful of names. The forward P/E ratio is 22.1. That is stretched. Consumer sentiment came in at 60.5 in June. Better than May, but still way below 2023 levels. The middle class is under pressure. Savings are drying up. Credit card delinquencies have climbed for six straight quarters.

The tariff truce ends July 9. Imports from China fell 43% year over year in May. The US Treasury collected 24.2 billion dollars in tariff revenue in Q2. That money came straight out of corporate margins and consumer wallets. The market has ignored it for months. That window is closing.

The Fed meets on July 30 and 31. The odds of a rate hike are only 8% right now. But a hawkish pause would be enough to scare this market. Bond yields are drifting higher. Liquidity is thinning. Big funds are moving into protection mode.

Bullish case
• Indexes still holding key technical levels
• Earnings remain solid in large cap tech and healthcare
• Retail spending is still positive year over year
• The Fed might stall and give markets more room

Bearish case
• Valuations are historically high with weak earnings breadth
• Tariffs are cutting into profits and raising inflation
• Market breadth is falling apart
• Consumer credit and sentiment are flashing red

On Reddit and Twitter, traders are buzzing. #sellthenews is trending again. The put call ratio is now at 0.94. That is defensive. Nobody is buying with both hands. The mood is cautious. TikTok finance influencers have pivoted to talking about bonds and cash management. When they get quiet, something is up.

Support for the S&P sits near 6,000. If it breaks, 5,820 is the next level. Resistance is stacked between 6,225 and 6,250. The index has failed to hold above that range for four straight sessions. Without a real catalyst, momentum fades fast.

Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-investors-eye-tariff-deadline-us-stocks-rally-2025-07-04
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-june-2025
https://www.ft.com/content/d0f9809a-ef26-4514-ab10-ae45e8807bf8
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/market-breadth-narrows-as-s-p-hits-record-high