Trump’s stimulus kept the economy afloat in 2020. Biden inherited the benefits, rode the bull market, and walked away before the cracks turned into craters. Now, Trump is back at the wheel, facing an economic mess that was years in the making.
Biden’s presidency was defined by easy money. Checks were sent, loans were paused, and the government payroll swelled. It kept the illusion alive, but reality was never far behind. Fifteen million student loans, millions of mortgages, and endless spending programs created an economic sugar high. That high is wearing off.
The real issue is debt. The CBO projects a US debt-to-GDP ratio of 156% by 2055. That’s even worse than the 154% projected just a few months ago. To put it into perspective, nominal GDP is expected to reach $88.4 trillion, while federal debt will balloon to $138 trillion. These numbers assume the US avoids a recession. If a downturn hits, all bets are off.
Debt at this level isn’t just a number—it’s a slow-motion collapse. Higher interest payments, reduced economic flexibility, and an endless need for more borrowing. The cycle feeds itself. The question isn’t if something breaks but when.
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by… pic.twitter.com/dmy2IGDuqo
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 29, 2025
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U.S. Treasury Marketable Debt Outstanding $ TrillionsNet Interest Payments Surpass Defense Spending. pic.twitter.com/NVZhPnWfS4
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 27, 2025