New York Times contributor Rajan Menon wrote in a mid-December op-ed that Trump is unlikely to agree to give Ukraine the security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding in temporary lieu of NATO membership. He’s apparently unaware that Trump will soon inherit the bilateral security agreement that the Biden Administration reached with Ukraine in June. It essentially institutionalizes existing US military aid for Ukraine and obligates it to resume the present scale and scope of such if the conflict reignites.
Nevertheless, Menon’s factually inaccurate assessment raises the question of whether Trump would terminate that agreement as part of his plan to “Pivot (back) to Asia” for more muscularly containing China, which his administration could never do in full if it maintains such commitments to Ukraine. Last June’s document stipulates that “Either Party may terminate this Agreement by providing a written notification through diplomatic channels to the other Party” within six months of planning to abandon it.
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