The war grinds on, but for now, there’s a flicker of pause. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, following extensive discussions with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia. It’s temporary, fragile, and entirely dependent on Russia’s response which is never a promising bet. Another truce, another gamble.
The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated plainly, “We hope Russia agrees. The ball is now in their court.” But seasoned observers know how this works. Ceasefires come and go, promises are made and broken, and the civilians trapped in the crossfire pay the highest price. The international theater may applaud these gestures, but in reality, this is just another pause in a war that never should’ve started.
What’s different now is the U.S. involvement. After withholding military aid for weeks, the Trump administration reversed course, resuming critical intelligence-sharing and defense assistance to Ukraine. Why now? Why after months of silence? Trump had paused aid in hopes of forcing peace talks, but that strategy failed. So now, the war machine cranks back to life, funneling weapons and intelligence into Ukraine’s hands as if more war will bring peace. It won’t.
But the deal didn’t stop at the ceasefire. Quietly, the U.S. and Ukraine have also finalized a separate agreement concerning Ukraine’s critical mineral resources — a goldmine of lithium, titanium, and rare earth elements. War always has layers, and minerals are the quiet undercurrent. The U.S. didn’t just restart aid out of goodwill; they’re securing economic leverage in the region. Russia undoubtedly sees it the same way.
For Zelensky, this ceasefire is a bitter pill. He’s argued against these temporary truces in the past, citing Russia’s routine betrayal of ceasefires to regroup and attack harder. His instincts are right. Russia has no incentive to keep this truce unless it serves their strategic advantage. And if history is any guide, the fighting will resume, and civilians will bear the brunt again.
Yet Ukraine can’t turn down aid. Their military had been left in the dark after the U.S. stopped sharing intelligence, making it near impossible to track Russian troop movements. With that intelligence now restored, Ukraine can defend itself more effectively but at what cost? More weapons, more fighting, more death. It’s like pouring gasoline on a fire and hoping it goes out.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is quietly tightening its grip on Ukraine’s resources under the mineral deal. This isn’t charity; it’s business. Lithium, titanium, and rare earths are the bedrock of modern technology and defense. Whoever controls those resources controls the future. So while the U.S. frames this as a humanitarian gesture, the machinery of power moves in the background, indifferent to the human cost.
Russia’s response will determine whether this ceasefire holds, but the track record is bleak. If Moscow disregards the truce as it has countless times before the cycle of violence will resume. Ukraine will continue fighting, America will keep sending aid, and more lives will be lost. Peace remains a distant fantasy, drowned in the machinery of war.
The hard truth is that this war doesn’t need more weapons or intelligence. It needs de-escalation, negotiation, and eventual reconciliation. But those things don’t fill defense contracts or secure mineral rights. Instead, the war grinds on, propped up by endless military aid and geopolitical maneuvering. The people of Ukraine and Russia remain trapped in this horror as major powers quietly carve up what’s left.
It’s not a peace deal. It’s not even a real ceasefire. It’s just another moment of quiet before the bombs start falling again.
Sources:
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1899525773712613819