Invest 91L
First flight of the Hurricane Hunters will be this afternoon.
Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of
low pressure located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system while it
moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Gulf of
Mexico. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form while it
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be
necessary on Monday for portions of the southern Texas and northern
Mexico coastlines.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
A good example of high certainty and high uncertainty in ensemble solutions this morning.
We are confident, based on the models, the wave center point crossing the Gulf will go ashore near TX/MX border.
On the other hand, fairly low confidence where exactly Franklin will turn to… pic.twitter.com/3kHP3wjaPs— Craig Setzer, CCM (@CraigSetzer) August 21, 2023
h/t DOORBERT