Tropical Storm Debby Strengthening in the GoM. Expected to be a Hurricane at Landfall. 20″ Rain Forecast for Savannah and Surroundings.

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…DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION…

www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and
in fragmented bands on the system’s east side. Some of the outer
bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm
today, and that data will provide very helpful information to
evaluate Debby’s strength and structure.

Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial
motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm
is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic
mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern
should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big
Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on
this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of
the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind
shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen
rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models
all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of
intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end
of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming
a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall.

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After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to
slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents
weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in
whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the
coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a
building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward
and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the
week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of
the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while
near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center
will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the
intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little
overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows
Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast
U.S.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning.
Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within
the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida’s west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

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3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible elsewhere
in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from
Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and
interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
later today.

Seeing STP and Helicity increasing across a large area of mid-FL. Could see a large number of tornadoes today as Debby’s bands come ashore. Already have a warning posted.

h/t DOORBERT


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