BREAKING: Tropical Depression One-C has formed in the Pacific and is tracking toward Hawaii. Here’s the latest. pic.twitter.com/cXvdZglMrH
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 22, 2024
Tropical Depression One C has formed in the Pacific and is currently tracking toward Hawaii. It joins major Hurricane Gilma in the region, and both systems are expected to head in the general direction of Hawaii. While the magnitude of impacts remains uncertain, the cyclones could potentially lead to large seas, giant waves, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall. As of now, Tropical Depression One C is approximately 1,190 miles away from Hilo, Hawaii, gradually strengthening as it moves westward.
Sources:
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-hawaii-tropics-central-pacific
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2024/08/22/tropical-storm-hone-pacific-hawaii/74884406007/
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2024/08/22/breaking-news/gilma-becomes-major-hurricane-tropical-depression-forms-in-central-pacific/
Tropical Depression One-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024
500 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1%20shtml/221500.shtml
The area of low pressure well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
has become better organized overnight, with persistent deep
convection now over the low-level circulation center. As a result,
the first Tropical Depression of the season has formed in the
Central Pacific basin. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in
at 2.5 PHFO and 1.5 SAB. Taking a blend of these estimates, the
initial intensity will be set at 30 knots.
The initial motion of Tropical Depression One is set at 270/12
knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next
several days as the system is steered by a large subtropical ridge
to the north. A decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward
the west- northwest is forecast by days 4 and 5 as a weakness
develops in the subtropical ridge to the north. The track forecast
is closely aligned with the consensus guidance.
Tropical Depression One is forecast to remain in a low to moderate
vertical wind shear environment, with warm sea surface temperatures
of 27 to 28C, and adequate deep layer moisture during the next
several days. This should result in gradual strengthening of the
system as it tracks steadily westward, and a tropical storm will
likely form later today. By late in the weekend into early next
week, the tropical cyclone will begin to see an increase in westerly
vertical wind shear and the potential for some entrainment of drier
mid-level air. This should lead to a gradual weakening of the
system. The intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus
during the next several days, bringing the system up close to
hurricane strength over the weekend, then is slightly lower than the
consensus guidance by days 4 and 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical Depression One is forecast to approach the Hawaiian
Islands during the next few days, bringing the potential for heavy
rainfall, along with dangerous surf and rip currents. A Tropical
Storm Watch could be required for portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands tonight or Friday.
h/t DOORBERT