The housing collapse isn’t a distant fear anymore; it’s happening. September 2024 saw over 26,000 active listings in Toronto—levels not seen since 2010—and this is only the beginning. With over 30,000 listings likely on the horizon in 2025, the flood of homes is about to get even worse. The “renewal storm” is coming, with expiring mortgages set to surge through 2025 and into 2026, paired with last year’s unsold homes that are primed to hit the market again.
This is how it starts. We’re witnessing the early stages of a housing market collapse, and no one is prepared for the aftermath. The illusion of a housing shortage was sold to us for years, and now that the truth is leaking out—there’s an overabundance of supply. But here’s the kicker: the demand isn’t there. So, we’re left with this paradox—too many homes for sale, but no buyers.
And that’s not all. The rental market? In freefall. Landlords are scrambling for tenants, offering “move-in specials” in record numbers—2,350 units, to be exact. This isn’t some minor market fluctuation. This is a full-blown, slow-motion collapse of rental demand. The cracks are widening, and landlords are fighting tooth and nail to keep tenants in place. But what happens when those incentives run dry?
The reality is harsh: incentives won’t save the market for much longer. When you flood the market with too much inventory and no one is buying or renting, you’re in the early stages of a massive market correction. This is exactly what happens when the housing bubble starts to pop. The dam is about to break, and when it does, the impact will be felt across every corner of Toronto’s economy.
What lurks beneath the surface? A rental market drowning in oversupply, and landlords panicking as they realize their assets are sinking. Toronto is facing a looming crisis of over-saturation, and the worst part? No one is ready for what’s coming. The housing “solution” was never more supply—it was always a matter of balancing affordability with realistic demand. And right now? The math doesn’t add up.
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/toronto-home-listings-highest-since-2010-2024-09-15/
https://x.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1891310659779825813
https://www.thestar.com/business/2025/01/16/torontos-housing-market-on-verge-of-collapse.html