Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
Valid 301200Z – 011200Z
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on
Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas.
…Synopsis and Discussion…
A shortwave trough will move quickly east across NM and into
northwest TX on Thursday, then eject northeastward across OK and
into MO overnight. Modest height falls are forecast across much of
the southern Plains during the day, but rapid warming aloft will
occur over southern parts of TX and LA by mid afternoon as the upper
wave ejects.
A relatively early risk of severe storms, including a few tornadoes,
appears possible mainly from late morning through mid afternoon
across southeast TX, while temperatures aloft remain cool and
midlevel lapse rates are maximized. A plume of upper 60s F to near
70 F dewpoints will spread inland, with MLCAPE through midday of
around 1500 J/kg. Given the warm advection regime and antecedent
cooler air mass with high pressure to the east, substantial
southerly flow including 50+ kt at 850 mb is forecast, which will
enhance shear. Effective SRH looks to be maximized from midday to
early afternoon, with values over 300 m2/s2.
There appears to be at least a few hours of overlap between the more
favorable instability and stronger shear, and during this time,
supercells including a couple tornadoes could occur. Early day
storms could be substantial and affect air mass quality. However,
this event will be driven mainly by moisture advection and isolated
severe cells within any larger scale convective area will still have
severe potential, including brief tornadoes.
..Jewell.. 11/28/2023
Gonna have to really keep an eye on southeast Texas for a severe threat Thursday afternoon-evening-night. Tricky setup (when is it not) but if the NAM is even partly right, event could have a ton of potential. But, there are some signs even in this scenario that the best shear… pic.twitter.com/AZjkV3Hul4
— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) November 28, 2023
There will be potential for severe storms, including a few tornadoes, for parts of southeast Texas into western Louisiana on Thursday (11/30). Storms are expected by late morning into mid afternoon. Further forecast details and updates: t.co/QMmU4tCxt1 pic.twitter.com/7EHMBsPGJG
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) November 28, 2023
h/t DOORBERT