Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska’s 2nd District confirmed he will not seek reelection. He’ll finish his term through January 2027. Bacon cited family, faith, and a desire to serve Omaha outside of Congress. He’s been in the House since 2017 and chairs the Armed Services Cyber Subcommittee. His district is one of the most competitive in the country. Democrats carried it in the 2024 presidential race. Bacon’s exit opens a high-stakes toss-up.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina is also out. He made the call after voting against President Trump’s budget bill. That vote triggered a public rebuke from Trump and a wave of pressure from the right. Tillis said he had been leaning toward retirement for months. The final straw came after Trump threatened to back a primary challenger. Tillis texted Trump directly: “Start thinking about my replacement.” He’s done. His seat is now a top Democratic target.
Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky announced his retirement back in February. He turns 83 this year. He’ll serve out his term through January 2027. McConnell has been in the Senate since 1985. He led the GOP conference for 18 years. His departure ends an era. The race to replace him is already crowded. Daniel Cameron and Andy Barr are in. Nate Morris is running too. The McConnell machine is winding down.
Then there’s Texas. Sen. John Cornyn is not retiring. But he’s in trouble. Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against him in the 2026 primary. The latest Pulse Research poll has Paxton up 57 to 38. That’s a 19-point gap. Among Trump-aligned voters, Paxton leads by 44 points. Cornyn is trying to close the gap by hugging Trump tighter. He’s hired Trump’s pollster. He’s backed every Trump nominee. He’s reading Art of the Deal in photo ops. It’s not moving the needle.
Cornyn’s favorability among Texas Republicans is underwater. Paxton’s is +52. Cornyn’s is +23. The base sees Cornyn as part of the old guard. Paxton is running as the fighter. The impeachment trial made him a martyr to the grassroots. Cornyn’s gun bill and past Trump skepticism are liabilities. The NRSC is backing Cornyn. But the base isn’t sold.
Sources:
https://bacon.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2709
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5376897-don-bacon-retires-nebraska-congress
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/29/thom-tillis-retires-00432045
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/06/30/john-cornyn-senate-texas-primary-republicans-trump-paxton
https://texaspolitics.com/2025/06/26/another-poll-shows-cornyn-struggling-against-paxton