Bond market ‘yield curve’ returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears
The relationship between the 10- and 2-year Treasury yield briefly normalized Wednesday, reversing a classic recession indicator.
Following economic news that showed a sharp decline in job openings and dovish remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, the benchmark 10-year yield inched above the 2-year
for the first time since June 2022.
The respective yields were both around 3.79% on the session, with just a few thousandths of a percentage point separating them.
The time has come today! Or People Get Ready! Rates may drop!
US 2y yields plunge to 3.95% as Fed’s Powell says ‘time has come’ to cut interest rates. Says Fed doesn’t seek, welcome further cooling in labor market.
The 10-2 year yield curve, a reliable recession indicator, just un-inverted.
Is this time different?
There are numerous articles back from 2006-2007 claiming the yield curve inversion theory is dead and are echoed today in headlines: pic.twitter.com/Yo4d9hCCF3
— Wealthion (@wealthion) September 4, 2024
🇺🇸 The current US market pricing for future Fed rate cuts are rarely seen without recessions.
Chart: @markets pic.twitter.com/0IPViEy3x5
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) September 4, 2024
Reminder.
Sales volume
Jobs
Prices t.co/U9Dcu01qKT— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) September 4, 2024
Dollar Tree $DLTR has fallen -21% today.
This is not a good sign for the U.S. consumer. According to CBS, Americans are having to choose between food or keeping the lights on. t.co/vCYhqX4WDC pic.twitter.com/6GMSMd5ilo
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 4, 2024
VIX pic.twitter.com/aCEcX2qnM8
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 4, 2024
U.S. 2yr Government Bond Yield pic.twitter.com/kI1KlubOTR
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 4, 2024