by Chris Black
Recently, the Houthis were designated a terror organization.
But a war in Yemen is comparable to the war in Afghanistan.
Both wars would be asymmetrical.
The U.S. led coalition could dominate the skies and much of the territory, but they can’t control every mountain, village, or even city.
While the U.S. has experience in this arena, it has been a while, and warfare has been democratized in a way where non-state actors can easily acquire the knowledge and wherewithal to fight.
Both the Taliban and the Houthis are rooted in tribal support: the Taliban has support from the Pashtun, in the border area with Pakistan, and the Houthis are a tribe in the border area with Saudi Arabia.
Absent of annihilating the entire tribe, they will always be there.
Their traditions last longer than the American political cycle and the mood for war.
Both the Houthis and the Taliban don’t have full support of the country, but they have enough support to control their respective countries or swaths of territory.
Even if leaders are killed and critical infrastructure is destroyed, there is no effective “day after” plan.
It took the Taliban 11 days to retake Afghanistan, and another generation of Houthis can retake northern Yemen if an occupying force leaves.
All a coalition can really do is try to cut off the Red Sea, do targeted strikes, secure the borders, limit supply lines, discredit them, and strengthen the Aden regime.
Maybe that’s all they want to do, but the Houthis aren’t going anywhere, and they have more support now than ever before.