The job market is cracking, and the numbers don’t lie. ADP’s latest employment report was a disaster, with only 77,000 jobs added in February—barely half the expected 140,000. That’s not just a miss; it’s a warning siren. January’s number was already weak at 183,000, but this latest plunge makes it clear: hiring is stalling, and the economy is running out of steam. Anyone still clinging to the “soft landing” fantasy should take a good, hard look at these numbers.
Hiring just hit its lowest point since July, and the details are even uglier. The trade, transportation, healthcare, and education sectors all bled jobs. Small businesses—the backbone of the economy—cut workers. This isn’t some minor slowdown; it’s a shift. We’re not looking at a job market cooling off gently; we’re watching the cracks spread before the break.
Construction and manufacturing managed to add 26,000 and 18,000 jobs, respectively, but that’s about the only bright spot. Service-sector growth was nearly nonexistent, and entire industries are shedding workers. The South and West, two regions that were economic powerhouses in recent years, lost thousands of jobs combined. This is a stark reversal—one that should have everyone questioning just how strong the so-called recovery really is.
For those still watching Wall Street like it’s the heartbeat of the economy, ask yourself this: why was everyone partying in the markets just weeks ago? Tech stocks were on an absurd tear—Meta was up 20 days in a row for no reason. PLTR was pushing a 400 P/E, and people were hyping HIMS like it was the next trillion-dollar giant. Meanwhile, Nvidia, the market’s crown jewel, couldn’t even make new highs. The whole thing reeked of excess, and now reality is crashing in.
Now, with these job numbers in hand, all eyes turn to Friday’s official employment report. If the ADP data is any indication, it’s going to be another rough day. And if this is truly the peak for 2025, then looking back, the signs were all there—stocks at euphoric levels, a Fed that doesn’t want to cut, and an economy that was already buckling under the surface. People wanted to believe the good times would never end. They always do.
Sources:
https://x.com/Mr_Derivatives/status/1897284352591221127
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-firms-add-77-000-133513965.html