Unemployment clearly shows we've been in the same economic cycle since 2010. It never ended.
We haven't had the real crash yet, but it's coming.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 18, 2023
Bullard was the most outspoken Fed member about needing to dramatically raise rates last year. Makes sense he's jumping ship now because the Fed overtightened.
When the crisis hits everyone will be looking for someone to blame & he'll be in his new dean role at Purdue University t.co/1kZ7Z0Z7vf
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 19, 2023
#RRP still falling on-track and helping to fund deficit and avoid severe #liquidity squeeze… at this rate of decline could be under US$1 trillion by end-Sept! pic.twitter.com/PkfyODX7Id contact ac@crossbordercapital.com for professional's reports.
— CrossBorder Capital (@crossbordercap) July 19, 2023
Loan books shrinking
Bankruptcies on the rise
CRE sector looking precarious
Massive layoffs
But
S&P & NASDAQ are on fire!
— Golden Memes (@RoshanLuitel8) July 19, 2023
The same people always say "Why would the Fed want markets to crash? That makes no sense."
Well, it makes perfect sense if you know what this chart means… If you don't I suggest you start Googling👇 t.co/2RhyVZh9fE pic.twitter.com/WyIxIDQNjm
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 19, 2023
uh oh … buckle up 😲
Recession is incoming fast. Hard Landing confirmed.
Inverse Cramer pic.twitter.com/bsHjt6YmS6
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 19, 2023
U.S. Retail Sales Barely Rise and Point to a Weaker Economy: MW
Retail sales in June showed a lackluster growth of only 0.2%, falling short of the forecasted 0.5% increase. This indicates a shift in consumer spending patterns and highlights weaknesses in certain sectors of the U.S. economy. With Americans now allocating more of their spending towards services rather than goods, the reliability of retail sales as an economic indicator has diminished. While overall consumer spending remains relatively strong, there were notable declines in sales at home centers, department stores, and gasoline stations. However, furniture and electronics stores, as well as internet retailers, experienced significant sales growth. The rise in sales of new vehicles and auto parts contributed to the overall increase, but excluding car dealers and gas stations, retail sales only saw a mild 0.3% uptick, providing a clearer picture of consumer demand. Restaurant sales, which are closely monitored by economists, saw minimal growth in June, despite a year-on-year increase. Overall, retail sales have stabilized after a surge in previous years, as consumer focus shifted to services such as travel, dining out, and recreational activities. While total consumer spending continues to outpace inflation, market reaction to the retail sales report led to a lower opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.
Americans Increasingly Facing Borrowing Headwinds: NY Fed Report Finds
Bank credit becomes increasingly difficult to obtain as rejection rates reach record highs, according to a report by the New York Fed. The overall rejection rate for credit applicants has risen to its highest level since June 2018, reaching 21.8%. This trend is seen across different age groups, particularly impacting those with credit scores below 680. Auto loan rejection rates have also hit a record high, standing at 14.2%, while rejection rates for credit cards and credit limit increases have also increased. The housing sector is severely affected, with mortgage rejection rates at 13.2% and mortgage refinancing rejection rates at 20.8%. The data indicates a pullback in loan applications, with only 40.3% of respondents seeking loans in June, the lowest level since October 2020. However, respondents planning to apply for credit over the next year have seen a slight increase. These trends coincide with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, making credit harder to obtain. The housing market has been significantly impacted by rising rates, leading to decreased borrowing and reduced mortgage demand.
Yellen: Economic Slowdown in China Has Contagion Risks For the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a negative warning about the Chinese economy’s slowdown, cautioning that it could have contagious effects. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy grapples with its own challenges, including higher interest rates, stubborn inflation, and looming recession fears. China’s GDP growth of only 6.3% in the last quarter, coupled with weak consumer spending and a struggling property market, paints a bleak picture of an anemic recovery from the pandemic. Alarming data also revealed a record-high youth unemployment rate of 21.3% in China. Yellen acknowledged the potential negative spillovers to the United States, particularly for Asian economies, but expressed confidence that a recession would be avoided. However, concerns persist as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, signaling a slower retreat of steep consumer prices. While the labor market has shown resilience, job creation weakened in June. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation have led to higher borrowing costs, impacting mortgages, credit cards, and other loans. As the economy faces these headwinds, the path to stability appears uncertain.