The S&P 500 is giving us a warning sign

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“S&P 500 thoughts: The warning sign is undeniably flashing. For two consecutive weeks now (and for the better part of a month), market breadth as measured by Net New Highs in both the NYSE and Nasdaq markets, has remained negative.

Net New Highs, as depicted in the lower panel of the chart, quantifies the difference between the number of stocks making new highs and those making new lows. In short— more stocks continue to make new lows than new highs.

The chart below marks key moments with vertical lines when breadth turns negative, and the short-term uptrend is lost, leading to price trading below the short-duration moving average. For another week the S&P 500 has closed below its short duration moving average (20-day exponential). This pattern has preceded all significant declines since the peak in 2022.

It is beginning to stand out to me that that the current peak is not nearly as sharp as the other marked instances, the appearance closer resembles the initial breakdown following the 2022 peak. I remain with the outlook the highs for 2023 have already traded and that the index will correct towards 3950 – 4100 before finding pause.”

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‘Dr. Doom’ Roubini says 10% fall in the S&P 500 ‘highly possible’ By

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