https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1669070435399487492
Fed cutting interest rates has been bearish for equities
It implies that something has broken in the system pic.twitter.com/6X7Kg9cQK4
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 14, 2023
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Reminder … the govt CPI is fake data. They massage the data so it is lower so that cost of living adjustments for social security are reduced over time. pic.twitter.com/rN57b9WKzS
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 15, 2023
The Fed on Inflation Since 2021:
1. May 2021: Inflation is "transitory"
2. Dec. 2021: Inflation may not be transitory
3. Jan. 2022: Inflation should fall to 2.5% in December 2022
4. May 2022: Inflation should fall to 4.3% in December 2022
5. Jan. 2023: Inflation will hit…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 14, 2023
2022/2023 has been the most aggressive tightening cycle ever seen in the U.S.
The full effects are yet to be felt by the economy pic.twitter.com/hUBKFXVFbM
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 14, 2023
Major S&P 500 lows associated with recessions (red) have occurred when profits (blue) are either at worst point or recovering (in year/year terms); different trend this time, as profits kept falling after market's October low
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/mOkktfhLx2— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 15, 2023
The Fed released a note last week regarding "Other Credit Facilities." The interesting part of this is they're expecting the $185 billion to be paid back before the end of 2023.
That's a massive liquidity rug pull from the banking system this fall.https://t.co/lVoVKDVq7r https://t.co/xncGPPEjxj pic.twitter.com/KTj6kXfESs
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) June 15, 2023
The AI-fueled stock market rally is 'overextended' and similar to the dot-com era mania, David Rosenberg has said.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 15, 2023
The Fed’s Dot Plot of Interest Rate Projections Show It’s Totally Confused
The Fed’s Summary of Economic projections is far more interesting. I highlighted the median economic forecast in pink. Each dot represents the position of someone at the meeting. Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is clueless.
Is the S&P 500 Setting a Trap for Investors Like the Dot-Com Bust of 2000?
Following the dot-com mania of the late 90s, the Nasdaq reached a closing high of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq then proceeded to lose 78 percent of its value over the next 2-1/2 years. It reached a closing low of 1,114.11 on October 9, 2002.
Mortgage Demand Rises 7.2% But Still Purchase Demand Still Down 27% YoY & Refi Demand Down 41% YoY
The Fed will annouce a pause at today’s FOMC meeting, so don’t look for mortgage rates to do much today. Mortgage applications increased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to …