Volatility has returned with a vengeance. The VIX spiked for two days straight, signaling that the market’s calm facade has cracked. The easy money era is over—investors who aren’t hedged are playing with fire.
Warren Pies sees a clear shift. He points out that Q4 earnings aren’t just numbers anymore; they’re battlegrounds. Miss estimates, and you’re crushed. Beat them, and the reward is lukewarm at best. Compare that to Q3, where winners saw a 4% rally in the following weeks, while losers bounced back within 20 sessions. That grace period? Gone. The market’s patience has evaporated.
And then there’s Starbucks. The last time they cut corporate jobs like this? July 31, 2007. Anyone with a memory longer than a goldfish knows what followed—GFC 1.0. Does this mean we’re staring down another financial crisis? The numbers whisper a warning.
Revolving credit data is outdated but still telling. The RSI is rolling over, meaning banks are quietly yanking liquidity out of the system. That’s how recessions start—not with a bang, but with the slow suffocation of credit.
Earnings beats remain steady, but the market’s reaction is what matters now. The fundamentals haven’t changed. The rules of engagement have. The market no longer forgives. It only punishes.
Sources:
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1894041947565703326
https://x.com/WarrenPies/status/1893802771305857164
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1894104950692593925
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1894114397905199517