“the market is oversold”

Stocks down. Bonds down. Dollar below 100. All at the same time.

That’s not a rotation. That’s capital leaving US assets.

The 30Y yield is 7 basis points from 5% while the dollar breaks a level it hasn’t lost in years. $TLT is getting destroyed on a day when it should be catching a bid.

When treasuries stop acting as a safe haven during a selloff, you’re watching a confidence problem, not a growth problem.

Powell speaks Saturday. If he doesn’t address the long end, I think $SPY trades below 640 next week.

Quad witch just stripped the gamma cushion. Monday moves hard in whatever direction it picks.

Is this the Sell America trade or am I overthinking it?