The labor market is trending toward a recession

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According to the Conference Board, the difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get has indeed declined to 16.4%, the narrowest since March 20211. This measure, known as the labor market differential, often correlates with the unemployment rate.

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While consumer confidence has reached a six-month high, concerns about the labor market have risen. The unemployment rate has recently increased to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years. Historically, such trends in consumer perceptions have been leading indicators for higher unemployment rates.

Sources:
www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-confidence-scales-six-month-high-labor-market-angst-rises/ar-AA1px1zc

finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-rises-august-141644495.html

apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-75e1a0e0eb737a298b5e71b1965bfac3

confoundedinterest.net/2024/09/02/happy-labor-day-market-pricing-in-nearly-250-bps-in-rate-cuts-while-biden-harris-overstate-job-gains-by-almost-1-million-jobs/

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