Late last year, my wife and I closed on a deal for an apartment in a hilltop town in Umbria. Soon after, I posted a question for my fellow participants in a Facebook group called Expats in Italy: “Is it just my imagination, but is there an uptick in Americans, in particular, looking to purchase property in Italy?” As the responses poured in, many of them sounded a distinct thematic note.
From a woman in Montana who was planning to move to Tuscany: “Yes, it’s true! I bought a hilltop village home … for a song compared to US prices. Don’t want to be in US anymore. It’s expensive and sick of all the political crap and shootings.”
From a woman in Texas: “An insurrection by a narcissist who couldn’t accept election loss combined with his gun and abortion policies made moving more of a necessity than just a dream.”
From a man in Tennessee: “I’m an American ready to flee America for Italy. I doubt I’m alone.”
Not alone, indeed. Granted, my unscientific survey was limited to a self-selected group of people with a declared fancy for one particular foreign country renowned for its artistic and cultural treasures, scrumptious cuisine, and exquisite landscapes. Still, it was striking that the specter of Donald Trump — a looming shadow I hadn’t even mentioned in my question — was on so many minds.
Every four years, as Americans gird themselves to choose a president, there’s talk, mainly among Democrats, of leaving the country. I’m off for Canada if unacceptable candidate X wins! And every four years, the promised exodus fails to materialize. It’s mostly just therapeutic venting.
This time is different.
The alarm over Trump’s potential triumph in November is far starker than the fears stoked by past presidents. “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable,” a recent Washington Post headline warned. The Atlantic devoted an entire issue to the authoritarian horrors in store for America “If Trump Wins.” Every four years or so, Gallup asks Americans ages 15 and up: “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country?” At the end of George W. Bush’s presidency, the number responding “yes” was 11%. During Barack Obama’s tenure, it was 10%. During Trump’s presidency, it hit 16%. That’s some 40 million Americans who wanted to leave their country behind, for good.
Young people are even more likely to be hopeful expats. Among those under 30, 24% wanted to leave America at the close of Bush’s tenure, 18% during Obama’s, and 30% during Trump’s. As with all things Trump, there was a sharp gender divide: Only 20% of young men wanted to flee America, compared to a whopping 40% of young women.
Americans already living overseas are bracing for a wave of new expats. “There will be more people moving abroad after the election if it is Trump,” said Doris Speer, the president of the Association of Americans Resident Overseas, a nonpartisan group based in Paris.
Stressing that she was expressing her own views, not those of her organization, Speer emphasized that Trump is far from the only reason Americans are eyeing the exits. That’s true: Housing prices in America are high, remote work is allowing for unprecedented mobility, and global respect for the United States has been eroding for decades, dating back to the war in Iraq. Fewer and fewer Americans, pollsters have found, believe “the American Dream — that if you work hard you’ll get ahead — still holds true.” In 2012, it was 53%. By October 2023, it was down to 36%.
A second Trump presidency, Speer said, could serve as a “catalyst” that further fuels the growing diaspora of Americans living in exile. After November, Europe could well become what Canada was for draft dodgers during the Vietnam War: a political asylum for Americans fed up with their own country. Call them Trump’s Exiles.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelected-americans-are-planning-to-flee-in-droves-2024-3
Trump won every county in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, CALIFORNIA, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and TEXAS last night. Every single one.
— Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) March 7, 2024
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