It’s almost time to start printing money to buy mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed is flying blind into an imploding economy. We are told that the "high end" consumer is still doing just fine, as evidenced by airline demand for premium seating.
However, airlines are not confirming this "bull market".
Pundits, do your homework. pic.twitter.com/e9OcjXIWQm
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 3, 2025
I predict sell-side Wall Street equity research won’t survive the burst of this bubble after it has been proven how damaging to markets and investors its non-independence is already in the DotCom and the GFC https://t.co/Wj7Hq9Ua22
— JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 3, 2025
We now have:
1. Rate cuts into 2.9%+ Core PCE inflation for the first time in 30 years
2. Rapidly deteriorating US labor market outlook
3. Deficit spending running at over $2 trillion per year
4. Jobs reports suspended due to government shutdown
5. Two more Fed rate cuts in…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 3, 2025
This is alarming…
Almost 40% of the US real GDP growth last quarter was driven by tech capex.
Bulk of the capex was AI-related investments.
Aggregate capex can’t keep climbing like this in the absence of real profits derived from AI investments.
If this doesn’t happen soon enough, we’ll likely see substantial slow-down in GDP growth, which can trigger a deep correction in the market given that the valuations are already at elevated levels.
I think it’s time to be more fearful than greedy.
This is alarming…
Almost 40% of the US real GDP growth last quarter was driven by tech capex.
Bulk of the capex was AI-related investments.
Aggregate capex can’t keep climbing like this in the absence of real profits derived from AI investments.
If this doesn’t happen soon… pic.twitter.com/8hmWvxQBat
— Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) October 3, 2025
How long it really takes to recover from crashes:
1907 Panic: –48% … 10 years to make new highs.
1929 Great Depression: –89% … 25 years to recover.
1973 Oil Shock: –45% … 9 years to recover.
1987 Black Monday: –36% … 2 years.
2000 Dot-com Bust: –78% Nasdaq … 15 years to…— 👁 (@Oculustrade) October 3, 2025
⚠️NEVER in history the US stock market outpaced economic growth by this much:
The Warren Buffett indicator just hit a RECORD 217%.
This means the US stock market is more than TWICE as large as the world's largest economy.
This is truly crazy.👇https://t.co/ACGxAfHsjm
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 3, 2025