The film “The Core” was a silly film, but core inflation in the US is a serious problem for the middle class and low-wage workers. It remains elevated despite Treasury Secretary Janet “The Marxist Gnome” Yellen saying it was “transitory.” Looks pretty permanent to me!
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measures of US inflation cooled (slightly) in May and consumer spending stagnated, suggesting the economy’s main engine is starting to lose some momentum.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% in May, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. From a year ago, the measure eased to the slowest pace in more than two years.
Consumer spending, adjusted for prices, was little changed after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in April. From February through May, household spending has essentially stalled after an early-year surge. Spending on merchandise dropped, while outlays for services increased.
Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% from May 2022. That’s in line with annual readings back to late 2022 and shows minimal relief from elevated price pressures. Economists consider this to be a better gauge of underlying inflation.
| Indicator | Actual | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| PCE price index (MoM) | +0.1% | +0.1% |
| Core PCE price index (MoM) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| PCE price index (YoY) | +3.8% | +3.8% |
| Core PCE price index (YoY) | +4.6% | +4.7% |
| Real consumer spending (MoM) | 0.0% | +0.1% |
Under the hood of the government report, a key metric flagged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed a welcome slowdown. Services inflation excluding housing and energy services increased 0.2% in May from a month earlier, the smallest advance since July of last year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The figure was up 4.5% from a year ago.
The Taylor Rule now suggests a target rate of 10%. We are just halfway to target!
Meanwhile, Yellen Plans July China Trip, While US Preps Investment Curbs. Trying to convince China that the US won’t default on its $32 TRILLION and growing debt?
