Phase two of the housing bubble burst is officially here. A major reversal has started as sellers continue to slash prices amid rising mortgage rates. A wave of price cuts is about to change everything in the market, especially with inventory levels increasing while demand is falling off a cliff. This is the turning point experts have been warning about. Fewer people are buying homes right now, and on the other hand, more homes are being listed on the market. The supply and demand imbalances are already noticeable in many areas of the country. We’re now dealing with a very dangerous environment where any shock could be the catalyst of a disaster.
New data released by real estate listings firm Zillow this week has shown that in some of the hottest markets of 2021 and 2022, home price cuts are ramping up. In fact, the firm has said that more homes are seeing price cuts this year than they have in the past 5 years, with the percentage of home listings that had a price cut jumping to 9.2% in September, topping the 7.9% rate for the comparable period in 2019, Zillow said, calling it “unusually high” even when considering seasonal shifts in the housing market.
But despite the rapid growth in the rate of price cuts, the market is still completely frozen. We have actually got to a point where demand is so low there isn’t much lower it can go. On the flip side, when we look at the number of new home listings, we can observe that supply is growing, and it’s growing faster than everyone anticipated.
Zillow revealed that a supply glut is starting to form in several markets. Nationwide, new home listings went up by 4% in August, and in September, they climbed to the highest levels since February. Sellers are waking up to the fact that mortgage rates are unlikely to meaningfully decline anytime soon, finally parting with their relatively low rates. Many are worried sinking demand could cause home prices to sharply drop if they wait any longer. It’s exactly when sellers start to panic and dump more inventory into the market despite the falling demand, that supply can rise exponentially from one month to the other. It’s in those moments that the deepest price cuts occur and the carnage begins.
At this point, any event that may disrupt economic activity can rapidly change the perception of the market, and investors’ sentiment turns negative, triggering a rush to sell, and consequently, a crash. The final stage begins when buyers who purchased their homes at inflated prices can’t longer pay for their mortgages, sparking what experts call “stress sales”. They can lead to further price drops and create a downward spiral. Investors will start to panic and sell their properties to get out of the market before conditions get even worse, meaning that sellers will begin undercutting one another.
That’s what happened in 2008. Once the downfall began, home prices lost 27% of their value. This time around, to bring affordability back to long-term averages, it would take some combination of up to a 37% decline in home prices. The pain will be devastating. The stage is already set and the signs are everywhere. Now, all we can do is wait for the trigger to be pulled.