by mark000
In August 2008 what was about to happen? A GFC and the plunge stage of the Great Recession. And 99% of people were blissfully unaware even as the other 1% could see it inevitable arrival, just waiting for when. It is the same situation right now, October 2023.
🔴 IMF'S MANAGING DIRECTOR GEORGIEVA: WE ARE IN A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY.
— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) October 13, 2023
. @jpmorgan's CEO Jamie DImon in this morning's quarterly earnings remarks:
"Now may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades."— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) October 13, 2023
Friendly reminder 1929 vs 2023 🫐
1st market peak:
Sep (1929) + 4 months = Jan (2022)2nd market peak:
Apr (1930) + 4 months = Aug (2023) t.co/wWMDnI7KtK pic.twitter.com/VUO605tdpT— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 12, 2023
It’s not just the question of the absolute level. After years of negative interests current rate of change will pop one bubble after another, starting with absurd real estate prices. pic.twitter.com/5nwtumvVqb
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) October 13, 2023
Consumer confidence nosedives lower to 63, expected 68
‘Echoes of GFC’ pic.twitter.com/IYUVlG44G5
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) October 13, 2023
The housing market is a critical component of the US economy
Median home prices have collapsed
In just 2 years, the % change has gone from over 20% to -7.4%
Current contraction levels have only been seen 2 times since 1964:
– 1970
– 2008Both instances ended in severe… pic.twitter.com/MDikC3yeT0
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) October 13, 2023
The global economy has proved resilient amid shocks such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, but performance has deteriorated in the longer term, writes @martinwolf_ t.co/etkVjjFsz1 pic.twitter.com/iBRFeH9lsL
— Financial Times (@FT) October 11, 2023
A Hallmark Of The Federal Reserve are Crisis Events
Elevated risks loom over the U.S. economy as the Federal Reserve navigates a highly leveraged financial environment amidst its “higher for longer” strategy. Historically rooted patterns suggest the intersection of surging debt and restrictive financial conditions may steer towards a crisis, particularly given prior instances where rate hikes and yield curve inversions precede recessions. The heightened policy misstep risk amidst slowing economic growth and rising borrowing costs signals caution for potential crisis onset in the near future.
UMich Inflation: Record 49% Of Americans Say “High Prices Are Wiping Out Living Standards”
October’s UMich data reveals a troubling economic outlook: inflation expectations soared to a disconcerting 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, while consumer sentiment plummeted to 63.0 from 68.1 due to rising inflation fears. A stark 49% of consumers report eroding living standards due to escalating prices, and the economic news index nosedives, reflecting increasing concerns about unemployment and price hikes.
At the Current Pace, the U.S. Would Add $1 Trillion in Federal Debt Every 45 Days
The U.S. Federal debt is skyrocketing, recently escalating by $40 billion in a single day, reaching a staggering $33.55 trillion. With an astounding pace of potentially adding $1 trillion to the debt every 45 days, the financial future appears precarious. From 2008, the debt has catapulted by $24 trillion, now 3.8 times its initial size. Despite already increasing by over $2 trillion since the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis, with the ceiling now effectively uncapped until January 2025, the ultimate scale of U.S. debt remains alarming.