Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
A recent report shows: Inflation‑adjusted starting salaries for new U.S. college graduates have fallen to about $54,500 This is the lowest level in at least six years Real wages for graduates have been declining as the entry‑level job market cools Fewer graduates are landing jobs aligned with their degrees This comes directly from a labor‑market …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1992215378181619837 Major retailers warn of slowing consumer spending and cut forward orders Nov 19 (Reuters) – Target (TGT.N), opens new tab reported a bigger-than-expected drop in comparable sales on Wednesday and offered a wide range of profit outcomes for its holiday quarter, as it cuts prices and makes investments to appeal to cash-strapped U.S. consumers. …
We’re about to enter the retail holiday season. Give it a few more weeks to see the real horror. Trucking freight volumes, a signal for the goods economy are a dumpster fire right now (-17% YoY) pic.twitter.com/4YPkLJtHdu — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 27, 2025 Hiring is at its lowest since 2009. But we’re still …
by confoundedinterest17 Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY. While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY. The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.
by confoundedinterest17 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August. Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter! Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation. Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope …
Big day for the dollar. Tonight is war:– PPI YoY (core inflation proxy)– Retail Sales (real economy pulse)– Powell speaks (narrative control) This isn’t just data — it’s positioning fuel. Liquidity will chase whatever breaks the illusion first. Be sharp. Stay liquid. Kill… pic.twitter.com/b56pN794al — Ananta (@AnantaSumantera) May 15, 2025 ⚠️Friendly reminder: Economic data will …
Japan wage shock: Real wages plunge to -2.1% YoY, the worst in two years, and a deflationary disaster for the BOJ which puts a final nail in any hiking plans. If anything, BOJ should restart NIRP and boost QE (but it can't with Bessent watching its every move). pic.twitter.com/kAV3BNcQgR — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 9, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack. Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index …
We’re noticing this here in SW Fl. Homes are going for less or sitting on the market. New single family construction has dropped a lot. Of course we’d like our home value to stay up but more importantly we’d like our kids to be able to buy a home in the near future. h/t EJK54
by confoundedinterest17 Government didn’t build this country. The private sector did. Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at …
by confoundedinterest17 We didn’t start the fire … The Fed and Biden/Harris did. And it is still burning. October STICKY core inflation is still up 4% YoY (year-over-year) Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pushed it up 3.3% YoY (not even close to the 2% mandate)… Source: Bloomberg There has not been a single …
by confoundedinterest17 So much for “The Fed killed inflation” narrative. Inflation is still alive and well in housing prices. Particularly in cities like Miami and Detroit? Maybe the Lions winning their division for the first time in 30 years helped! The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census …
by confoundedinterest17 Even Biden’s press secretary Karine Jean Pierre admitted that all the slogans and hype about Bidenomics is a losing message. The economy is terrible for the middle class and low-wage workers. But excellent for the 1% donor and political elite class. But housing is very important to the middle class … and housing is …
by confoundedinterest17 So much for Biden’s “miracle economy.” Challenger jobs cuts report is out for May and job cuts soared 286.7% year-over-year (YoY). As M2 Money growth crashes.