Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Das Problem ist die aktuelle Schwäche des NDX. Selber unter seinem 50 MA und seine aktuelle Marktbreite die schwächste aller Teilmärkte als Folge der anhaltenden Rotation in Low Vola Titel. pic.twitter.com/ALTR4KqlGL — Stockalper 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 🇨🇭🇮🇹 (@K_Stockalper) July 19, 2026
Small businesses feel the pressure from persistent inflation more than larger corps. They have less pricing power, thinner margins, and less ability to pass on costs. Rising costs destroy fixed incomes fast. Inflation from higher oil will hit then fed will have to raise rates at least once. That will crash the markets. Walmart cutting …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — FactPost (@factpostnews) December 10, 2025 …
via Phoenix Capital Research Stocks are now in danger of a serious sell-off. The Trump administration is currently negotiating its single most important trade deal with China. The President and his team have been able to sign deals with a number of other countries already, but trade between China and the U.S. is THE issue as far …
Something broke again in the banking system today. The headlines say regional banks fell because of a few bad loans. That is not the real story. Zions Bancorporation confessed to a $50 million loss on two California loans, and Western Alliance collapsed 11% after admitting it was suing a borrower for fraud (Yahoo Finance, Star …
There’s nothing biased about labeling this the biggest bubble in US equity & housing history – it’s called the reality. Bubbles are rarely linear. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 24, 2025 Housing market weakness triggers Lennar to offer biggest incentives since 2009#RESights #MacroEdge — MacroEdge RESights (@RESightsbyME) August 24, 2025 July 2025 saw the second …
Gold needed a timeout and it’s still sulking. With gold at $3500, we warned that gold was stretched from its moving averages and needed to fall and correct. So far it fell $380 and 4 months have passed with no new highs for spot gold. Todays chart still shows weakness and potential to fall further, …
Bitcoin’s price is climbing again, but the foundation looks hollow. On July 15, it broke past $123,000 before pulling back to $117,500. That’s a 25% gain year-to-date and a 1,150% surge over five years. The headlines call it momentum. The charts show bullish indicators. But the underlying driver isn’t utility. It’s speculation. There’s no industrial …
Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) Actual: -0.3% Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.0% Export Price Index (Year-over-Year) Actual: 1.7% Forecast: Not available Previous: 1.9% Export Price Index (Month-over-Month) Actual: -0.9% Forecast: -0.1% Previous: 0.1% Import Price Index (Month-over-Month) Actual: 0.0% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: 0.1% Import Price Index (Year-over-Year) Actual: 0.2% Forecast: 0.1% Previous: 0.1% Retail Control (Month-over-Month) Actual: …
New home prices are fairing much worse when measured by Fed rate cycles than they were during the 2004-2009 Fed rate timeline. New Memo in comments. pic.twitter.com/Za3K6Q7dys — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) June 7, 2025 “Housing IS the business cycle” – Edward E. Leamer pic.twitter.com/ADAw5zYC5S — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 7, 2025
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …
It’s now official. The euro has broken out above a key historical resistance level. FX trends often take time to develop, but once they do, they tend to persist for years. I expect this time to be no different, with the US dollar likely to weaken further against other… pic.twitter.com/KiCuLdQqcG — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) …
The yen is quietly making a comeback—and this isn’t just a temporary blip. After years of suppression, the Japanese currency is primed to normalize and, yes, soar. The writing is on the wall, and Japan’s fiscal policies, coupled with shifting global dynamics, are setting the stage for a much stronger yen. For years, the yen …
BREAKING: US ISM Services PMI index tumbled to 52.1 in November, well BELOW expected 55.7. At the same time, ISM prices paid jumped to 58.2, above expected 57.0. New orders and employment fell to 53.7 and 51.5 below expected 56.6 and 53.0 Are stagflation fears coming back? BREAKING: US ISM Services PMI index tumbled to …
The bond market does not believe the Fed. Bonds signal inflationary and economic weakness risk is rising. via Bloomberg Stagflation… — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) October 12, 2024 Gold beats the S&P 500 this year as investors discount more currency destruction Graph via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/kf7nV9VhvZ — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) October 11, 2024
FedEx CEO says “The magnitude of the Fed rate cuts . . . signals the weakness of the current environment,” as priority shipments between businesses, a bell-weather of the economy, dropped FedEx reported a steep quarterly profit drop and lowered its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday after its customers continued to trade down from speedy, …
Everything you see about Kamala is fake fake fake, including the debate where she was fed the questions. Wake up. Fake vs real, often too real for TDS pic.twitter.com/jvxvdPQfip — George Paxton (@GeorgeP63470020) September 13, 2024 She has no support. They have to bus fake supporters into her rallies to make the optics look better. …
Money is pouring into Chinese government bonds. The buying has bid up prices and forced yields down to near record lows. The move has upset the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), which has expressed considerable concern over what will happen to China’s financial stability when the rally reverses and people, especially banks, suffer losses. Behind …
https://twitter.com/AgPacifica/status/1825882905127825554 Ladies and gentlemen, This is it. pic.twitter.com/cV2wb2m7r8 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 19, 2024 Gold Bars Are Worth a Million Dollars for the First Time The milestone was reached Friday, when the precious metal’s spot price surpassed $2,500 per troy ounce, an all-time high. With gold bars typically weighing about 400 ounces, that …
In the predawn darkness, the Houba labour market in Guiyang is a sea of construction helmets as day workers seek temporary jobs in the south-western Chinese city. But many of these so-called migrant workers, labourers who have left their homes in mostly rural areas to find jobs in the city, will leave disappointed. China’s property …
Posts from the economiccollapse community on Reddit The Buffett indicator doesn’t look so great, either. AI has pushed everything much higher. No one knows what effect it should really have on valuations and at some point a bubble does form. Not predicting it because no one really knows but there are warning signs. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-indicator-sounds-alarm-220009350.html Americans …
Self-help author Marianne Williamson announced she was unsuspending her 2024 presidential campaign, weeks after previously suspending it. In a video statement on social media, Williamson said she returned to the race because she feels President Biden is a vulnerable candidate against former President Trump. Williamson wrote, “As of today, I am unsuspending my campaign for …
In a distressing revelation, the Federal Reserve anticipates three rate cuts next year, acknowledging the challenge posed by persistent inflation. The economic engine falters as demand plummets for homes, vehicles, and goods, painting a grim picture of financial distress among Americans. Once deemed a lifeline, credit cards are now avoided, sinking below pre-pandemic levels. Soaring …
The weakness is spreading. German manufacturing employment has been falling 3 out of past 5 months. And it isn't "just" the energy-intensive sectors anymore. 17 out of 24 major NACE sectors are contracting. But strength in a few sectors limits overall fall to 0.1% over past 3M. https://t.co/5Vk8YK2UbR pic.twitter.com/rZFTxtMVl0 — Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) October 16, …
US Consumer Spending Is Signaling Pain Ahead: Credit Weekly (Bloomberg) — The US consumer is starting to buckle as rising gas prices crimp spending and the delinquency rate on credit cards reaches the highest level in more than a decade. And that’s before student loan payments restart in October. A measure of consumer confidence slumped …
Is the US in recession already like Germany? Latest jobs numbers weren't encouraging at all (even before revisions). In fact, that weakness is starting to look like other significant data suggesting more than possible contraction. HAPPY LABOR DAY? pic.twitter.com/ijCik2ZYb2 — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) September 4, 2023 Staggering figures reveal 1.2MILLION US-born workers lost their …
Keep in mind: Liquidity matters! pic.twitter.com/Umk4CilqDY — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 28, 2023 ⚠️ 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗛 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗠𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗟𝗬 𝗖𝗨𝗧𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗣𝗨𝗥𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗦, 𝗖𝗔𝗥𝗥𝗘𝗙𝗢𝗨𝗥 𝗖𝗘𝗢 𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗦 Full Story → https://t.co/zME1YTyaFi "We are seeing a non-spending tsunami in France." pic.twitter.com/ObkiNwVLaA — PiQ (@PiQSuite) August 29, 2023 CHINA BANKS WEIGH FURTHER DEPOSIT RATE CUTS TO BOOST GROWTH. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) …
Next week will be interesting because many charts are indicating market weakness which lines up with week 21. https://t.co/ggQXxGybX0 pic.twitter.com/U2aMp07RLv — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 29, 2023 Here's an interesting chart. Volatility spikes have been occurring on the same weekly intervals the last two cycles. Weeks 8 & 17 are common across both, implying a large …
by Shaun Richards The economic story of 2023 was supposed to be one where the re-opening of China after Covid saw its economic growth surge again.Except as we have been noting increasingly the economic engine has been rather stuttering. Back on the 17th of this month we looked at some disappointing manufacturing and production figures for April and this morning there …